Flash Flood Watch 16, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED ZONES REFLECT KEEPING HIGHER POPS WEST AS CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST. UPDATED ZONES ALSO
REFLECT LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS AND
RAIN COOLED AIR DOMINATE. OTHERWISE WIND FIELDS REPRESENTING THE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW LOOK GOOD AND WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED.

WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AS ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE REQUIRED BY MID
AFTERNOON.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
121 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
121 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
        RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
        ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS .
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
        RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA... NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN HAS DISPLAYED DIURNAL WEAKENING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HASNT BEEN
AS EASILY IDENTIFIED PER RADAR DATA. LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATES
THE CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PAWNEE COUNTY AS THE CIRCULATION
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.  SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 25 TO
30 MILES AN HOUR NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MILES AN HOUR POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. GUSTS NEAR 60
MILES AN HOUR POSSIBLE..THUS RESULTING IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT THAT IS RELATIVE
TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF ERIN MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

OKZ065>067-070-071-191845-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE AND WESTERN WAGONER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MCINTOSH

AT 1247 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR OKMULGEE TO OKEMAH TO BEARDEN.  THE
STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...WHILE THE OVERALL
BAND OF STORMS ROTATED AROUND THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ERIN WHICH AT NOON WAS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF TULSA.

AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE ALERT AREA VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.

IN THESE SITUATIONS BRIEF TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP.

PERSONS IN THE ALERT AREA SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LOCAL
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF SEVERE WEATHER IS
OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3546 9656 3520 9644 3563 9529 3612 9550
      3575 9588