Alert archive / Oklahoma / Flash Flood Watches in 2007

Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

January 11, 2007Choctaw County, Latimer County, Pushmataha County, Oklahoma; Carroll County, Madison County, Washington County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood watch at Jan 11, 2007, 3:50 PM CST for Choctaw County, Latimer County, Pushmataha County, Oklahoma; Carroll County, Madison County, Washington County, Arkansas. It took effect at Jan 12, 2007, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for 57 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 11, 2007, 3:50 PM CST (21:50 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 12, 2007, 12:00 PM CST
Expired
Jan 14, 2007, 8:31 PM CST
In force
57 hr
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Flood severity
None

Counties Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Choctaw County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2007-01-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2007-01-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 460 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
868 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
460 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
489 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS64 KTSA 112150
FFATSA

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

...A COMPLEX STORM MAY BRING FLOODING TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

.THE STORM THAT WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY BRING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO WEST 
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ049-053-076-120600-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FF.A.0001.070112T1800Z-070115T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
350 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST 
  OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...
  CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
  CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND PUSHMATAHA.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT OVER
  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE RAIN
  WILL COME IN SEVERAL INSTALLMENTS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
  IS LIKELY TO COME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GENERAL
  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST 
  CENTRAL ARKANSAS IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE TWO TO FOUR INCH
  RANGE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
  LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND SIX INCHES FROM HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
  OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$
11 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 120415
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

...A COMPLEX STORM MAY BRING FLOODING TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

.THE STORM THAT WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY BRING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ049-053-076-121215-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.070112T1800Z-070115T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
1015 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND 
  SEBASTIAN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND 
  PUSHMATAHA.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT OVER 
  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE RAIN WILL 
  COME IN SEVERAL INSTALLMENTS. GENERAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL 
  OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IS LIKELY TO 
  BE IN THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 
  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND SIX INCHES FROM 
  HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 120923
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

.THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY BRING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ049-053-076-122215-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.070112T1800Z-070115T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
323 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND 
  SEBASTIAN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND 
  PUSHMATAHA.

* FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL... WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
  CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN SEVERAL WAVES OVER
  THE NEXT THREE DAYS. GENERAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN
  THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND SIX INCHES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS
OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 122031
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
231 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

.A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY BRING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ049-053-076-130915-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
231 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND 
  SEBASTIAN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND 
  PUSHMATAHA.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN...
  WILL COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND 
  WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN SEVERAL WAVES 
  OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. GENERAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ARE LIKELY 
  TO BE IN THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND SIX 
  INCHES. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 130751
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
151 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
   ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ049-053-076-131800-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
151 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND 
  SEBASTIAN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND 
  PUSHMATAHA.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
  THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
  OKLAHOMA...INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
  ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
  CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
  DAY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
  SOUTHERN PLAINS. AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
  OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES
  WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD
TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO
CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER
RECEDES.  REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 131709
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1109 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ049-053-076-140115-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
1109 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND 
  SEBASTIAN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND 
  PUSHMATAHA.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS EAST
  CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH
  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES COMMON.
  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND
  OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE FLASH
  FLOOD POTENTIAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO SIX INCHES ARE
  POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

* FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED WITHIN THE WATCH
  AREA...AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
  MOTORISTS SHOULD EXPECT LOW WATER CROSSINGS TO BE FLOODED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD
TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO
CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER
RECEDES.  REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED
AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 132038
FFATSA

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ049-053-076-141000-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
238 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND 
  SEBASTIAN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND 
  PUSHMATAHA.

* THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WEST
  CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY...WITH TOTAL
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES COMMON. ADDITIONAL
  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  EVENING HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
  INCHES POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
  WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. TOTAL RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THIS STORM WILL REACH UP TO
  SIX INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

* FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED WITHIN THE WATCH 
  AREA...AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. 
  MOTORISTS SHOULD EXPECT LOW WATER CROSSINGS TO BE FLOODED. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD
TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO
CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER
RECEDES.  REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED
AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 140344
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
944 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ049-053-076-141145-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
944 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND 
  SEBASTIAN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND 
  PUSHMATAHA.

* THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WEST
  CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY...WITH TOTAL
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES COMMON. ANOTHER ROUND
  OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
  THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
  SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THIS STORM WILL REACH UP TO SIX INCHES IN A
  FEW LOCATIONS.

* FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED EARLIER TODAY
  WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE
  SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXPECT LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS TO BE FLOODED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD
TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO
CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER
RECEDES.  REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED
AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 140646
FFATSA

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

ARZ002-010-011-OKZ072-075-141500-
/O.EXA.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-SEQUOYAH-LATIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...
FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...SALLISAW...WILBURTON
1246 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS 
  AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWEST 
  ARKANSAS...CARROLL...MADISON AND WASHINGTON AR. IN OKLAHOMA...
  LATIMER AND SEQUOYAH.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS 
  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
  WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES COMMON. 
  ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...
  INTO TONIGHT.  WITH GROUND CONDITIONS ALREADY SATURATED ANY 
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. TOTAL RAINFALL 
  AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THIS STORM WILL REACH UP TO SIX 
  INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. 

* ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. MOTORISTS SHOULD
  EXPECT LOW WATER CROSSINGS TO BE FLOODED. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD
TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO
CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER
RECEDES.  REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED
AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

$$

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ049-053-076-141500-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
1246 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND 
  SEBASTIAN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND 
  PUSHMATAHA.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WEST 
  CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
  WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES COMMON. 
  ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...
  INTO TONIGHT.  WITH GROUND CONDITIONS ALREADY SATURATED ANY 
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. TOTAL RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THIS STORM WILL REACH UP TO SIX
  INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. 

* ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXPECT
  LOW WATER CROSSINGS TO BE FLOODED. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD
TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO
CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER
RECEDES.  REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED
AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 141323
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
723 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-072-075-076-142215-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-SEQUOYAH-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...
FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...VAN BUREN...OZARK...
CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...SALLISAW...
WILBURTON...POTEAU
723 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON AR. IN OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...
  LATIMER...LE FLORE...PUSHMATAHA AND SEQUOYAH.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS 
  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND 
  SATURDAY WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES 
  COMMON. SOME AREAS HAVE RECORDED NEARLY 4.5 INCHES. ANOTHER 
  ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND 
  INTO TONIGHT. WITH GROUND CONDITIONS ALREADY SATURATED
  ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. 
  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THIS STORM WILL 
  REACH UP TO SIX INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. 

* ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. MOTORISTS SHOULD 
  EXPECT LOW WATER CROSSINGS TO BE FLOODED. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD
TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO
CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER
RECEDES.  REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED
AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 142049
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-072-075-076-151000-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-SEQUOYAH-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...
FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...VAN BUREN...OZARK...
CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...SALLISAW...
WILBURTON...POTEAU
249 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON AR. IN OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...
  LATIMER...LE FLORE...PUSHMATAHA AND SEQUOYAH.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
  WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES COMMON. SOME
  AREAS HAVE RECORDED NEARLY 4.5 INCHES. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
  THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH
  ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...HOWEVER THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND ANY
  LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THIS STORM WILL
  RANGE FROM FIVE TO SIX INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

* ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. MOTORISTS SHOULD 
  EXPECT LOW WATER CROSSINGS TO BE FLOODED. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD
TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO
CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER
RECEDES.  REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED
AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KTSA 150231
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
831 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

.SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. 

ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-072-075-076-150345-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070115T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-SEQUOYAH-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...
FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...VAN BUREN...OZARK...
CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...SALLISAW...
WILBURTON...POTEAU
831 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THAT BROUGHT
MORE THAN THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND HAVE FINALLY ENDED. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jan 11, 3:33 PM CST, 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 11, 3:33 PM CST, 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AND VERY SMALL DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE
AN UNUSUALLY LARGE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BY TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE NEAR
THE I-44 AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE BE FALLING AND REACH NEAR THE FREEZING POINT IN
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AND THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
TO NEAR I 40 BY SATURDAY MORNING.

WILL BE UPGRADING THE NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES INTO
AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND
LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH INTACT FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY IT BECOMES VERY TRICKY. SOME EROSION OF THE COLD
AIR WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO PRECIPITATION ALOFT THAT IS MUCH
WARMER THAN THE COLD AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE THE FREEZING
RAIN AREA BACK NORTHWARD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR ONLY RAISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
DURING THE DAY.

IN THE AREA WHERE THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OF ABOVE GROUND OBJECTS...
TREES...POWER LINES AND BRIDGES COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH
AND POSSIBLY MORE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS
AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND THE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY GOING
TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALSO DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE SOUTH OF 2
TO UP TO 4 INCHES...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IT IS LIKELY THAT FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL BE ADJUSTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THIS STORM DEVELOPS AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  49  28  30 /  40  80  70  80
FSM   52  56  41  44 /  70 100  90  90
MLC   56  60  34  37 /  60  90  90  90
BVO   39  39  24  26 /  40  70  60  80
FYV   53  56  31  33 /  70 100  80  90
BYV   50  56  31  33 /  70 100  80  90
MKO   50  53  31  33 /  60  90  80  80
MIO   43  49  25  28 /  50  70  60  80
F10   52  54  29  32 /  50  90  80  80
HHW   57  62  42  45 /  60  90  80  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ073.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ058-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ076.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ010.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 11, 3:42 PM CST, 8 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
342 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
342 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS (NON THUNDERSTORM).
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=48.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44 WHERE DRIER FUELS EXIST...OTHERWISE THE FIRE
DANGER WILL BE LESS TODAY AS HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 50
PERCENT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ICE STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEADING EDGE PUSHING
THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FREEZING LINE
REACHING INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES BY AROUND NOON...AND NEAR
I-44 BY EVENING. ONGOING RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF A PAWNEE TO VINITA LINE BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS I-44 BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION TIMING AND INTENSITY REMAIN VERY
UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT CHANCES OF RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN REMAIN VERY HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO SURGE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF ICING POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST
LIFTS OUT.

ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD START PREPARATIONS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 11, 3:54 AM CSTWinter Storm WatchTSAAdair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 16 more41 hr
Jan 11, 8:15 AM CSTWind AdvisoryTSAAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, McIntosh and 12 more10 hr
Jan 11, 4:06 PM CSTIce Storm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 16 more4 days

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Oklahoma, 2007Flash Flood Watches in Arkansas, 2007Every flash flood watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.