Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS CENTER A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH A STRONGER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IOWA. BOTH FEATURES RESIDE WITHIN AN
ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE TROUGHING PATTERN ALONE IS FAVORABLE FOR
AN ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCE AND FURTHER AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. LATEST RADAR DATA SUPPORTS SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE ON NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...AND
TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS. ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS DECAYING
EASTERN KANSAS MCS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ENTER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A REMNANT BOUNDARY
REMAINING IN THE AREA TODAY. AGAIN EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND IN
OVERALL COVERAGE THOUGH PRECIP WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TROUGHING
REMAINING OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH LESSER CONNECTION TO PASSING
NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE. OTHERWISE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP
CHANCES DURING BOTH THESE PERIODS TRENDED UPWARD. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAINS GIVEN PRECIP
EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT. ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND
HAIL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT BUT LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN WHICH WILL SUPPORT DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LATEST GFS/CANADIAN MODEL OUTPUT HAVE A
ROBUST SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BY MID WEEK...WHICH IS A
CONTINUED TREND IN THE GFS...AND IF IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THEN
PRECIP CHANCES WILL FURTHER INCREASE. PREFER THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PUSH BY LATE WEEK SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...THOUGH EVEN THIS
SOLUTION HAS A BOUNDARY ENTERING THE AREA. AGAIN...SHOULD THIS
VERIFY THEN ADD YET ANOTHER REASON TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES.
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  71  86  70 /  70  30  30  20
FSM   85  68  86  67 /  70  40  40  20
MLC   85  68  86  69 /  60  30  30  20
BVO   87  68  87  68 /  70  30  30  20
FYV   83  65  83  65 /  70  40  50  20
BYV   82  65  83  66 /  70  40  50  20
MKO   83  67  84  68 /  70  30  30  20
MIO   85  68  84  68 /  70  30  40  20
F10   85  68  85  67 /  60  30  30  20
HHW   84  69  85  69 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
436 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING...BUT MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR MUCH OF THE STRONGER
CONVECTION...BUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
SOME LIFT AND FOCUS ALSO. WIND FIELDS WILL NOT SUPPORT
SUPER CELLS...BUT THERE WILL BE A LIMITED RISK OF ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK WHILE A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.