Wind Advisory 18, NWS Topeka, KS

000
WWUS73 KTOP 211521
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1021 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

KSZ024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059-211630-
/O.CAN.KTOP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-071021T1800Z/
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-
FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOPEKA...LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
1021 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAVE LESSENED AND SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$
BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
234 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER TRANQUIL AND STELLAR FALL WEATHER DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED WITH THE
MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH SURFACE FUELS DRY EVEN WITH EARLIER RAINFALL THIS WEEK...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH
FIRE GROWTH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. REFER
TO RECENTLY ISSUED SPS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

RATHER BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AT H85 DEVELOPING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. BOTH THE EURO...GFS AND WRF SUGGEST
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 60 TO 70 KTS. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS
SUNDAY MORNING PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST
UPON THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO FOLLOW SUIT.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN EXPERIENCED TODAY. STRATIFORM POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO SBCAPE/MUCAPE
SO THUNDER SHOULD BE ABSENT.

SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE WEEK HAS MOVED ONSHORE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND IS LIKELY BEING SAMPLED A BIT BETTER
NOW THAT ITS OVER LAND. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING IN
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...AND CUTTING
OFF LOW FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR MON/TUES TIME PERIOD...AND KEPT
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS POST FRONTAL PRECIP HAS
BEST CHANCE TO CROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AND VERY
ELEVATED...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW ALTHOUGH A
RUMBLE OVERNIGHT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

KEPT ISOLD POPS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MOSTLY AS AN
UNCERTAINTY FACTOR. PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD CLEAR US OUT
SOMETIME TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE STILL A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM SO WILL NOT YANK POPS OUT YET. HIGHS IN THE EAST WED STILL
IN THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WEST IF UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE CAN BUILD IN ALONG NORTHERN BORDER.

FORECAST ON THURS/FRI AGAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF TEMP...AS
GFS AND EC BOTH SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE LOW SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST
BEFORE LIFTING IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE MEAN FLOW INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE DRAWING COOLER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE A MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP WARMER AIR IN PLACE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
WEST/EAST ON THURSDAY AND WENT TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD IN NW FLOW ON SAT AND
HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH HPC GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIGHT BE SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH ATTM WILL
YIELD TO LATER FORECASTS TO ASSES THE SITUATION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS PERIOD. REFER TO
SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BLAIR/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
946 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-220300-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
946 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.