Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 210126
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
824 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSC161-210145-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-070821T0145Z/
RILEY-
824 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY COUNTY...

AT 821 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MANHATTAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANHATTAN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

STRONG DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.
FOR YOUR SAFETY MOVE INDOORS NOW...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF RILEY AND GEARY COUNTIES. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3922 9672 3916 9683 3914 9684 3908 9676
      3909 9670 3907 9669 3907 9659 3907 9651
      3907 9649 3904 9649 3904 9639 3917 9639
      3917 9655 3921 9654 3926 9660

$$

SFB/DC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE 12Z UPPER
AIR MAPS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
CO...NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KS...INTO WEST CENTRAL NE THEN
NORTHEAST INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SD. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NE...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KS WERE IN THE MID 70S AND
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND MID 70 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WAS
CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO REACH 108 TO 112 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THEREFORE A
HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 700 PM.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
OR WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NE AND CENTRAL KS WILL PROBABLY MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS IS
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE FROM THESE STORMS. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS AN MCS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NE...WHICH WOULD THEN PROPAGATE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA FROM
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE RUC AND GFS HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING THEM EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
THEM AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. GIVEN LOWER TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES HAVE CAUSED MLCAPES
TO INCREASE 3-4,000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN KS AND SOUTHEAST NE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PROFILES SHOW SOME TURNING FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850MB...AND 30KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 600 MB. THUS
SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND EASTERN NE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE
16,000 FEET THUS THE HAIL MAY ONLY GET TO QUARTER SIZE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN PWS OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES. ATTM I KEPT THE HIGHEST
POPS 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT ABOUT DEVELOPING AN MCS
ACROSS EASTERN NE. ATTM IM LEANING MORE TO THE GFS MODEL. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. MINOR 5H TROUGHS MAY RIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 5H RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
850MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE AND COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL CAUSE MLCAPES TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 3 TO 4,000 J/KG
LEVEL. THE CAP MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NE BORDER FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THAT MAY
HELP ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA. OTHERWISE...STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH MID
90S ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL
LET THE NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
SINCE CONVECTION THIS MORNING COULD LEAVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
CERTAINLY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD. HAVE KEPT
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 90S...BUT A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER IS
ANTICIPATED.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY AND PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING WITH THE
FROPA HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHEAST KS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY.

PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ALLOWS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONTAL BOUDARY SETS UP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND FEW WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS EVENING. ATTM I PLACED IN VCTS BUT IF AN MCS WERE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
TIME WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY SEE SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND THEN A FEW BOUNDARY LAYER CU
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES OF 4,000 FEET.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVSY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR ALL FAR NORTHEAST CWA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-211100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
352 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

HEAT INDICES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL RANGE
FROM 106 TO 112 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...GENERALLY WEST OF US HIGHWAYS 177 AND 77. HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND MUCH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. HEAT STROKE...HEAT CRAMPS AND HEAT
EXHAUSTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PROLONGED EXPOSURE AND PHYSICAL
ACTIVITY OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 MAY BE SEVERE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N GLASCO              39.44N 97.84W
08/20/2007  E65 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSZ020-210015-
CLOUD-
644 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

THROUGH 715 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CLOUD COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE MILTONVALE AND
GLASCO.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CLOUD COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
716 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSZ020-021-034-210100-
CLAY-CLOUD-OTTAWA-
716 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

THROUGH 800 PM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CLOUD...CLAY AND
OTTAWA COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
MILTONVALE...OAK HILL...LONGFORD...MINNEAPOLIS...IDANA...MORGANVILLE
AND CLAY CENTER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
729 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 N LONGFORD            39.24N 97.33W
08/20/2007  E75 MPH          CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN OVER THE ROAD.

&&

KAYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
733 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW OAK HILL          39.30N 97.37W
08/20/2007  E70 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
754 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             3 SSW JAMESTOWN         39.56N 97.88W
08/20/2007  M1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL