Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1207 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.PREV DISCUSSION /348 AM WED JUL 4/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR SHOWING VORT MAX/POSSIBLE MCV DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST NE WITH ASSOCIATED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE CONVECTION INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NE WITH SCT CONVECTION ALONG IT.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHCENTRAL COUNTIES
IS AIDING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION...BUT WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
IS WEAKENING IT AS WELL. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CNTRL KS CONVECTION AND
WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FROPA. CLOUD COVER
WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL LIMIT HEATING THIS
MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL COOLING WILL ALSO WEAKEN CAPPING ACROSS THE
NORTH AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE NOON IS POSSIBLE WITH SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. THIS WILL
BE THE TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DECREASING AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS STRONG...LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR
WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MAYBE SOME HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE PROLONGED
ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE FLOODING RECENTLY OCCURRED.

FOR TONIGHT...AS FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY IN THE EVENING
BEFORE SUNSET. HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...THEN WENT
DRY ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO EDGE INTO THE CWA
AND FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DIMINISHES. FEW
CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT. WITH MORE SUN AND WARMER 850 TEMPS MANY
AREAS...HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD.

AS UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVANCE EASTWARD AS WELL...HIGHS IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
CURRENT LOOK ON TRACK. LITTLE OF NO CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST BEYOND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH FCST IS WHETHER TO INCLUDE TS. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHERE IN THE VCNTY OF THE KS
RIVER. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED AHEAD EARLIER THIS MORNING.
WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS OUTFLOW...CU FIELD
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. THIS MAY BE WERE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TAKES PLACE...NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS ONLY AT FOE...TOP AND MHK. GIVEN CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG...WOULD EXPECT DECENT INTENSITY WITH VSBY
FALLING TO AROUND 1SM AND CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT WITHIN THE TS. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WOULD YIELD MEAN STORM
MOTIONS OF ABOUT 36008KT.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
433 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
433 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
PRIMARILY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I 70 THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
142 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

KSZ022-023-041915-
POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-
142 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THROUGH 215 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RILEY AND SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE MANHATTAN...ST. GEORGE AND WAMEGO.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
157 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             5 N EMMETT              39.38N 96.06W
07/04/2007  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY A ST MARYS PD SPOTTER.

&&

WOLTERS

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
201 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

KSZ022>024-038-039-041945-
JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
201 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THROUGH 245 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF JACKSON...RILEY...
POTTAWATOMIE...SHAWNEE AND WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BELVUE...DELIA AND ST. MARYS.
MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 317 AND 330 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.