Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
434 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS STRONG UPPER LOW IN ITS
WAKE DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND PROFILERS
SHOWING TEMPORARY BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IS AIDING REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA. AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS WELL. FIRST ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS
EVENING...THEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL. HAVE ADDED HVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO GRIDS AND HWO FOR
LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A BROAD LIGHTER SWATH OF A THIRD
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. EXPECT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO
LINE UP MORE WITH HIGHER FFG VALUES EAST OF THE SATURATED NORTH
CENTRAL COUNTIES...SO HAVE NOT GONE WITH AN FFA AT THIS TIME.
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS MAINLY WEST...HAVE INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER NAM IN LIFTING WARM FRONT NORTH ON
SATURDAY OVER THE GFS...SO HAVE DELAYED LOWER POPS SATURDAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS WELL...BUT STILL FAVOR HIGHER QPF IN THE MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WEAKENS
THROUGH 18Z. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGHS SATURDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SW

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE WEST WITH DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT .  LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AS HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. H850 MB WINDS 45 TO 55 KTS OVERNIGHT ON NAM
AND 30 TO 40 KTS ON GFS.  MODELS WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER...MOVING
SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OVERNIGHT AND WOULD CONFINE PRECIP CHANCES TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY COULD
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT NORTH. KEPT 20 TO 30 POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR NOW WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CWA.  MODELS HINT OF SOME UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE INCH TO 1.5 INCH RANGE SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE...AND HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

ON SUNDAY...MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH GFS JUST A TAD
SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH LOW...OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
BY 00Z MONDAY.  STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...DRY LINE...SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG DRY LINE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SPREAD
EASTWARD SLOWLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.  HIGHS SUNDAY
FROM LOWER 70S NORTH CENTRAL TO MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW PUSHES OUT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MAKING
PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN POSSIBLE.  ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS THAT
MODELS HINT OF DRY SLOT BEING WRAPPED INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
SYSTEM AND COULD CUT OFF PRECIP EXTENT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.  KEEPING CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WRAP AROUND COLD
UPPER LOW CENTER.  HAVE HIGHS MONDAY FROM THE MIDDLE 60S
NORTHCENTRAL TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY
END OVER FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL QUITE A
BIT OF MODEL DISPARITY WITH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MID WEEK AND EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HAVE LINGERED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WITH DEPARTING
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY FAVORING THE SLOWER GFS EJECTION OF SYSTEM OVER
THE ECMWF.  HIGHS TUESDAY MIDDLE 60S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHWEST.

ON WEDNESDAY...ECMWF PUSHING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE
GFS MORE DAMPED WITH FLOW.  HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO LOW TO MID 70S
SOUTH.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ECMWF MUCH MORE WRAPPED AROUND WITH UPPER
LOW/CUTOFF AND THUS SLOWER IN EJECTING WESTERN WAVE EAST.  12Z GFS
MORE OPEN/FASTER WITH WAVE.  WILL FOLLOW HPC LEAD WITH SOME
COMPROMISE ON PATTERN.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THEN LINGERED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM...HAVE QUITE
A RANGE FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY...MIDDLE 60S NORTH CENTRAL TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH IN WAKE OF SYSTEM.

PF

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN TOP/FOE THROUGH MID EVENING...BUT INTRODUCED
CONVECTION BACK INTO KMHK AS WAA/MOISTURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CWA...THEN SPREADS EAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE CARRIED VCTS AS
LLVL JET DEVELOPS THROUGH 06Z WITH INCREASING CONVECTION...WITH A
TEMPO MAINLY IN THE 08Z-13Z TIMEFRAME AS BEST COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT OCCURS DURING THIS TIME. KEPT TAFS VFR
EXCEPT IN CONVECTION WITH BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS AND CIGS DOWN TO 2500
FEET. EXPECT MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

SW

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-131800-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
502 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
LOCALLY SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR...AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT GENERALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TOPEKA.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
417 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             MINNEAPOLIS             39.12N 97.71W
10/12/2007  M1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL, UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

JL

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

KSZ034-122245-
OTTAWA-
502 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

THROUGH 545 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF OTTAWA COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE MINNEAPOLIS AND WELLS.