River Flood Warning 14, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHER SMALL OUTFLOWS WERE NOTED ACROSS
REPUBLIC COUNTY AS WELL. AN MCV WAS STILL SPINNING OVER FAR
NORTHEAST KANSAS...SE NEBRASKA AND NW MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS
HAS SUSTAINED CONVECTION IN THIS GENERAL AREA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THETA RIDGE LAY ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND RUC KEEPS IT
IN PLACE. CONVECTION THAT LED TO FLASH FLOODING IN REPUBLIC COUNTY
IS DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

MCV MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL BROAD BRUSH THE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER TODAY. WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 18Z TODAY EVEN THROUGH CONVECTION IS
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN TREND OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OF
CONVECTION AND WITH VERY HIGH PWS EXPECT TO SEE RAINFALL RATES OF 2
TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ALONG WITH VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS. CLOUDS
WILL AGAIN PLAY A ROLE WITH HIGHS TODAY AND ADJUSTED PRIOR FORECAST
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

FOR TONIGHT WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE OUT OF MONTANA ACROSS NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM CONVECTION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 2 INCH PWS.

ON FRIDAY...NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH
GOOD WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS KANSAS. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON THE FRINGE OF POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
IOWA. RIDGE BUILDS THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

TROPICAL TYPE CONVECTION BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MORNING THUS FAR. NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING PRESENT WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION COLD POOLS ENHANCING AND
DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION. SEVERAL DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA AND NEW ISOLATED CONVECTION CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT REGION. THIN MID/UPPER CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
AREA FROM DISSIPATED CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 4 TO 6 MILES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. REFER TO SHORT TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES AND CLOUD COUNTY UNTIL 18Z TODAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
451 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021500-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
451 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF NORTHEAST KANSAS DOWN THROUGH CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 1 PM THURSDAY. SEE THE
APPROPRIATE WATCHES AND STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THUS THE
ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
AND COVERAGE.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...FAVORING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

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