Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 011559
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1059 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSC117-131-011609-
NEMAHA-MARSHALL-
1059 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN MARSHALL
AND NORTHERN NEMAHA COUNTIES...

AT 1059 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

LAT...LON 3999 9579 3971 9578 3971 9623 3973 9680
      3999 9680

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MCV OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING SHOWS UP IN REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
PROFILERS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS HELPING TO FIRE STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY WITH MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS HIGH.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME FOR TODAY WITH HIGHER POPS FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA BORDER AND EAST TOWARD THE MISSOURI LINE.

FOR TONIGHT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT
ON THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. WEAK RIPPLES IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
AND REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVES
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

ADDED SOME POPS FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MIX OF GFS/NAM BUT MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY. GENERALLY WENT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MCV OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND
ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PURIST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FOLLOW. CEILINGS OVER THE AREA
MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT 12000FT WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CU.
VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO BE REDUCED AT 4 TO 6 MILES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VIS BY MID
MORNING. REFER TO SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
500 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
500 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH A
FEW OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.