Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 272327
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

KSC085-149-177-280215-
JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-SHAWNEE-
623 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND JACKSON
COUNTIES...

AT 613 PM CDT...THE POTAWATOMI RESERVATION FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED 
A CREEK WAS AT THE BASE OF A BRIDGE NEAR 150 AND K ROAD...AND ANY 
MORE RAIN COULD CAUSE THE CREEK TO GO OVER THE BRIDGE. SPOTTERS AND 
RADAR INDICATE THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS COMMON ACROSS THE 
AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE AND 
WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE FLASH FLOODING TO WORSEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POTAWATOMI RESERVATION...MAYETTA...HOLTON...EMMETT...DELIA...ST 
MARYS AND DENISON

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FLOWING WATER IN A CAR OR ON FOOT.

LAT...LON 3919 9612 3911 9598 3934 9558 3959 9557
      3920 9626

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 280120
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
815 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

KSC149-177-280125-
POTTAWATOMIE-SHAWNEE-
815 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SHAWNEE AND
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

AT 815 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WATER WAS 
RECEDING ACROSS THE AND THAT CREEKS WERE WITHIN THEIR BANKS. 
THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3921 9603 3922 9579 3928 9568 3943 9569
      3943 9585 3933 9603

$$

KSC085-280215-
JACKSON-
815 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 815 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY 
AND THE POTAWATOMI INDIAN RESERVATION. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SPOTTER 
REPORTS AND RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE MANY AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 3 
INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECEDE AS THE 
RAINFALL TAPPERS OFF. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POTAWATOMI RESERVATION...DELIA AND MAYETTA

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

LAT...LON 3921 9603 3922 9579 3928 9568 3943 9569
      3943 9585 3933 9603

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 280206
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
905 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

KSC085-280215-
JACKSON-
905 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM CDT FOR JACKSON 
COUNTY...

AT 905 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT THE FLASH FLOODING
IS NO LONGER OCCURRING AND RUNOFF FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
RECEDE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3921 9603 3922 9579 3928 9568 3943 9569
      3943 9585 3933 9603

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH LINGERING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS...WHILE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  HAVE
HAD AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH THE NORTHERN FRONT PROMPTING
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE KS NE BORDER...AND ARE NOW SEEING A LINE OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN LOW MOVING NORTH INTO EAST
CENTRAL KS ATTM.

DIFFICULT TO REFINE DETAILS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...HOWEVER DO
THINK THAT BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH...EXPECT ONE TO ENHANCE THE OTHER AND
BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.  STORMS
ARE RATHER PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS...DROPPING AN INCH IN HALF AN
HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY PASSES...SO THINK OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
BE OK OUT OF THE WATCH ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY GET A PROLONGED ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AND THINK THE WATCH IS STILL WARRANTED SO WILL STAY IN
PLACE. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I70 FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...AND DECREASED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TO NO POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM SLOWLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY THE MEAN
FLOW. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I35 IN THE MORNING THEN
DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS THREAT DECREASES. HAVE COOLED TEMPS A
BIT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED QPF TO TRY AND BETTER
CAPTURE ONGOING AND FORECAST PRECIP.

67

THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY AND THE MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY JUST IN INITIALIZATION LEFT
SOME LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS
OVERNIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT SO WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH THAN I35.  AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS SO REMOVED POPS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND GRADUAL WARMING.  INITIALLY IN THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT H500 RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA CLEARING OUT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  BAND OF
WESTERLIES WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BRINGING LEE
SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY.  LEE
TROUGHING WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BETWEEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND BY MONDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS WAS INDICATING AN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H500 RIDGE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES AS A FEW
STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  IF THIS VERIFIES THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST.  WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND TRANSITIONING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THAT COULD SET OFF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CWA.  WITHOUT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THESE RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE
FEATURES OUT AT DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME.  THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IF THE FLOW ALOFT DOES TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE CARRIED VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY AT TAF SITES HOWEVER HAVE IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIME OF GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TSTORMS. HAVE DEPICTED HEAVIEST ROUNDS AT MHK IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH TOP AND FOE IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THINK THAT WILL BRING CIGS BACK UP TO MVFR IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM
THURSDAY FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
418 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-282130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
418 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
EXISTING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. AS A RESULT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 700 PM THURSDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 35. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1220 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NW MUNDEN             39.98N 97.62W
06/27/2007  M2.75 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL.

1158 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SCANDIA                 39.79N 97.78W
06/27/2007  M2.96 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SINCE AROUND 830 AM.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SCANDIA                 39.79N 97.78W
06/27/2007  M3.30 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SINCE BETWEEN 830 AND 900 AM.

&&

JL