Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
246 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...AND
EXCEPTIONAL WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSLATE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE PRIMARILY
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND INTENSIFY
LATER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING
SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
DURING SATURDAY...HOWEVER NONE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WARMING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE DURING
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ZUMPFE

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED PATTERN. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ZONES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE EFFECT WILL
BE NORTH IN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD MONDAY AND
A FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND KEEP THE AIRMASS
WARM AND DRY. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY BUT
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SLIGHT. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
AN UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS
WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE...WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. VFR CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  81  53  85 /  40  10  20  20
CTB  53  77  49  82 /  50  10  10  10
HLN  55  83  51  87 /  30  10  20  20
BZN  51  84  48  88 /  20  20  20  20
WEY  44  82  41  84 /  20  20  10  10
DLN  51  83  45  86 /  20  10  10  10
HVR  59  82  51  84 /  40  10  20  20
LWT  56  76  50  80 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ009>014-044>051.

&&

SHORT TERM...ZUMPFE
LONG TERM...ZELZER
AVIATION...EMANUEL

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
301 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2007

MTZ009>014-044>051-301300-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-
CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-TOOLE-LIBERTY-
EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
301 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM MDT. THERE
IS A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DEVELOPMENT WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

PLEASE STAY TENDED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES...FORECASTS...AND WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008-015-052>055-301300-
BEAVERHEAD-MADISON-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
301 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             26 N BLACKFOOT          48.95N 112.84W
06/29/2007  M1.75 INCH       GLACIER            MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

            US CUSTOMS AT DEL BONITA HAD GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

WILLIAMSON DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
419 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             26 N BLACKFOOT          48.95N 112.84W
06/29/2007  M1.75 INCH       GLACIER            MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

            US CUSTOMS AT DEL BONITA HAD GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

0335 PM     HAIL             10 N DUPUYER            48.34N 112.50W
06/29/2007  M0.50 INCH       PONDERA            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOST HAIL WAS PEA SIZED

&&

WILLIAMSON DC