High Wind Watch 1, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
422 AM MST MON JAN 1 2007

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE KEY WEATHER WORDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE UPGRADED HIGH
WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY MODIFY THESE EVENTS. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEP
THE PLAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EMANUEL

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT.
THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA BUT THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO MEXICO AT ITS DEEPEST. WILL
SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LEAVING A DIRTY ZONAL FLOW IN
ITS WAKE OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH EXPANDS OVER NEARLY ALL OF
CANADA. HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A RIDGE
IS TRYING TO PUSH UP OVER THE WEST COAST FOR A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CWA. WHILE THIS NORMALLY CREATES DRY DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAINS...THE FLOW IS DIRTY ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME
SMALL POPS. THE TROUGH ALSO ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
REGION SO HAVE CONTINUED THE COOLING TREND STARTED ON EARLIER
SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THOMSON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1122Z.
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOCALIZED FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA AROUND 18Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THOMSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  38  30  50  35 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  41  32  48  36 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  28  17  38  19 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  25  11  32  12 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  18   0  24   7 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  28  14  37  18 /   0   0  10  20
HVR  28  15  40  21 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  36  22  46  28 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MTZ011>014-044>046-049.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR MTZ009-010-048.

&&

SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...THOMSON
AVIATION...THOMSON

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
638 PM MST SUN DEC 31 2006

MTZ009-010-048-011200-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
638 PM MST SUN DEC 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TONIGHT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND EASTERN GLACIER
COUNTY. WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING.
GUSTS MAY GENERALLY REACH UP TO 70 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008-011>015-044>047-049>055-011200-
BEAVERHEAD-HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-TOOLE-LIBERTY-
EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
638 PM MST SUN DEC 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.