Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
152 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007

CORRECTED TO ADD WIND CHILL ADVISORY

...SIGNIFICANT FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...THE BIG STORY IS THE UPCOMING
COLD EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...AND EVEN
INTERIOR LEE COUNTY COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

BUT FIRST...WEAK OVERRUNNING EVENT HAS BEGUN WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS CITRUS
AND LEVY COUNTIES...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THOSE COUNTIES
BEFORE THE DAYS END. AS EXPECTED...RAIN HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT...WITH
JUST A TRACE SO FAR AT FORT MYERS...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST REGIONAL HAS
PICKED UP TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

LATEST GFS RUN HAS CHANCE POPS FOR ALL OF OUR AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP POPS BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE SO FAR...MOST OF THE
RAIN IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AND CLOUDS OVER THE GULF DO NOT LOOK
ALL THAT OMINOUS. I DID EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH LEVY COUNTY...BUT AGAIN...NO REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE CLOUDS AND RIGHT LAIN
OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BY MORNING. IN FACT...WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
BELOW FREEZING IN LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO. I WILL MENTION NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE ZONES. ALSO...WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL PROBLEMS FOR THE NATURE COAST AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH IN CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO MAXIMIZE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET. WE ARE FORECASTING
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST AREAS OF THE
NATURE COAST...AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WE WILL EXTEND THE
FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL BUT LEE COUNTY...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF LEE COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 AREA WIDE ON
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
USHERING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR.  SOME CLOUDS AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT BEHIND IT DURING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
MONDAY WITH MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IF LATEST GFS IS CORRECT.  EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHANGE WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO WILL JUST
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES THAT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS FOR THE GULF WATERS AS WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE TROUBLE STARTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE FORECASTING WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND
WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS UP TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TOUGH CALL COMING UP FOR FRIDAY AS WE DEAL WITH A
COMBINATION OF WIND...DRY AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF.
THE NATURE COAST SHOULD REACH FLAG CONDITIONS AS BOTH DURATIONS AND
WINDS WILL EXCEED CRITERIA. FROM THERE...THE INTERIOR...SUCH AS
SUMTER AND POLK COUNTIES COULD SEE DURATIONS. TO THE SOUTH...THE
PICTURE IS MUCH FUZZIER AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
BORDERLINE. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE WATCH UP FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD
BUT CONVERT TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR POLK...SUMTER...PASCO COUNTIES
NORTHWARD.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL ALSO BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF OUR REGION
ON SATURDAY...AND WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT WE WILL MEET CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...WE ARE LESS SURE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL WAIT ANOTHER 12 HOURS
FOR LATER MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING A DECISION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  42  57  34  60 /  30   0   0   0
FMY  48  65  38  64 /  40  10   0   0
GIF  42  59  35  63 /  30   0   0   0
SRQ  46  59  37  61 /  30  10   0   0
BKV  35  54  22  60 /  20   0   0   0
SPG  46  57  42  60 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     MANATEE-SARASOTA.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
     POLK-SARASOTA.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EST FOR LEVY...CITRUS...
     HERNANDO...PASCO...SUMTER...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLOSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
752 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-151600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
752 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME LIGHT RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. TONIGHT...A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND CLEAR OUT THE RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING IN LEVY
COUNTY. COLD AIR WILL FILTER QUICKLY SOUTH WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WILL RANGE FROM
20 TO 30 DEGREES IN THE MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WITH READINGS FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR LONG DURATIONS OF
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A COMBINATION OF LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
15 MPH ON FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...
AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN A
MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTLINE.
FIRST...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS BUILD TO 8
TO 11 FEET. THESE WAVES WILL REACH THE COASTLINE...AND COULD
RESULT IN ROUGH SURF WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-151600-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
752 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME LIGHT RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. TONIGHT...A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND CLEAR OUT THE RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COLD AIR WILL FILTER QUICKLY SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS WITH READINGS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 30
DEGREES THERE.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A COMBINATION OF LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
15 MPH ON FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...
AND MAY PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY
RESULT IN A MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTLINE. FIRST...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS
BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET. THESE WAVES WILL REACH THE COASTLINE...AND
COULD RESULT IN ROUGH SURF WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.