Tornado Warning 12, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...U/L BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  W/V IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.  U/L DIFLUENCE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ALONG WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR EACH DAY WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND
LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS.  CANT RULE OUT A FEW
WATERSPOUTS AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SPIN UPS
TO DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARIES.  U/L RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE FA
WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS.  AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA IN AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...END OF THE WEEK FEATURES A
FLAT 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE WHICH IS DIRTIED BY WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH IT.  THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SINKS A
LITTLE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE PESKY NORTHEAST U.S. TROUGH
CONTINUES.

THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON DAYS
6 AND 7 (SUNDAY/MONDAY) AS THE LATEST NOGAPS AND CANADIAN GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST WITH ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. TROUGH. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SURFACE TROUGHING WOULD EDGE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOW A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN EARLY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING OF ACTIVITY. THE NOGAPS WAS
PARTICULARLY GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST
YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.  WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY TO 60
PERCENT GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING...THEN
TAIL BACK TO MORE TYPICAL 50 DAY/30 EVENING PERCENTAGES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY WELL
DETERMINE WHERE RAINS FALL AS GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL NOT
DOMINATE...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUED TRICKY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIGHT BE ABLE TO HANG HAT ON DEVELOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GET SOME ACTIVITY INTO KSRQ/KFMY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEREAFTER...HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 14Z AND 21Z...WITH A
GRADUAL TAIL-OFF TOWARD EVENING LEAVING DEBRIS RAIN AND MVFR TO
VFR CLOUDINESS THEREAFTER.  GFS RATHER BOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TERMINALS...SO HAVE ADDED PROB30 MVFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING AFTER 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  75  90  77 /  80  30  60  30
FMY  90  75  91  75 /  80  30  60  30
GIF  90  74  92  75 /  80  30  60  30
SRQ  89  74  90  75 /  80  30  60  30
BKV  89  70  91  72 /  70  30  60  30
SPG  88  78  89  79 /  80  30  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BSG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
501 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-242115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
501 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW WATERSPOUTS TODAY. COASTAL
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE VIGILANT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. A FEW PULSE SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

OGLESBY