Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS52 KTBW 192144
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
544 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

FLC053-192200-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-070619T2200Z/
HERNANDO-
544 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL HERNANDO COUNTY...

AT 544 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF BROOKSVILLE...STATIONARY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL CENTRAL HERNANDO COUNTY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
  EXCESSIVE AND DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OF LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2853 8246 2854 8244 2856 8235 2846 8228
      2846 8234 2845 8235 2845 8242 2844 8243
      2844 8245

$$

000 
WWUS52 KTBW 192156
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
556 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

FLC053-192206-
/O.EXP.KTBW.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-070619T2200Z/
HERNANDO-
556 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HERNANDO COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 PM EDT...

AT 556 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE 
THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

LAT...LON 2853 8246 2854 8244 2856 8235 2846 8228
      2846 8234 2845 8235 2845 8242 2844 8243
      2844 8245

$$

55

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
141 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT - THURSDAY) MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
MID AND UPPER PATTERNS WITH TROF PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE.
SURFACE PATTERNS DIVERGE BUT MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT LOW THAT
DROPS SOUTH AND PERSISTS OVER THE STATE. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH WEAKER ELONGATED LOW THAT DRIFTS SOUTH OVER CENTRAL
FL WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES AND MAX TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES LOWER. THE LOW WILL THEN DRIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TRENDING TOWARD INLAND AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THU NIGHT- TUESDAY) A WEAK TROUGH AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD IN AT THE SFC FROM THE ATLANTIC AND RETURN THE E/SE FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOONS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. TOWARD MORNING
WEDNESDAY MAY AGAIN SEE PATCHY MVFR/LCL IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4
FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  87  74  89 /  20  50  40  40
FMY  75  91  74  88 /  20  40  40  50
GIF  76  90  74  89 /  30  50  40  50
SRQ  75  87  73  87 /  20  40  40  40
BKV  72  87  71  89 /  20  60  40  40
SPG  78  88  76  89 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
401 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-191500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
401 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS
MORNING BUT PROGRESS STEADILY INLAND AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWEST RIGHT NEAR THE
COAST AND HIGHEST WELL INLAND. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUR STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JILLSON