Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
148 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO NW FL
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
STALL ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WED. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SE AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NORTHERN FL. THE TROUGH WILL
THEN REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN FL WED. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE TUESDAY
SHOULD AGAIN SEE TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SEABREEZE
AND WILL KEEP THE CURRENT 40-50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN FL
BRINGING MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH IT AND ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED
STORMS OVERNIGHT. S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WED ALONG WITH THE
SETTLING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH.
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL THROUGH TUE NIGHT
AND THEN BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH WED DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN.

.LONG TERM(WED NIGHT-MON)...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BEGINNING A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY THE WEAK TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF
THE EAST COAST AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH CONTINUING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING
ONSHORE AND THEN SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS AND AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVER LAND AREAS OVER NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
WED AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  75  88 /  20  40  30  50
FMY  74  91  73  91 /  20  50  30  40
GIF  74  92  74  90 /  20  50  30  50
SRQ  74  89  74  88 /  20  40  30  50
BKV  69  91  70  88 /  20  40  30  60
SPG  77  90  76  89 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...24
LONG TERM/AVIATION...03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
438 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-181500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
438 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWEST AROUND THE NATURE COAST AND
HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN 1 MILE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JILLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
112 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

FLZ049-181800-
PASCO-
112 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN PASCO COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT AREAS
NORTHEAST OF JASMINE ESTATES AND NEAR MOON LAKE ESTATES...UNTIL 200
PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

FLZ062-181800-
CHARLOTTE-
130 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT BABCOCK
RANCH AND TUCKERS CORNER...UNTIL 200 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30
MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

FLZ061-062-181845-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-
207 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN DESOTO AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
BABCOCK RANCH...TUCKERS CORNER AND RURAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
DESOTO COUNTY...UNTIL 245 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

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