Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
206 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...ONGOING EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER THAT. THERE
REMAINS A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY OVER OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...AS
WEAK AS IT IS...WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN DETERMINING WHO GETS WET
AND WHO DOESNT. SINCE THE RIDGE IS WEAK...THE COAST WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST RAIN CHANCES. AREAS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ARE LIKELY TO
BE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD STEER THE STORMS WELL
INLAND. SOUTH OF THE BAY...STORMS MAY DEVELOP A BIT CLOSER TO THE
COAST BUT WILL STILL PROBABLY FAVOR INLAND LOCATIONS AS SEA
BREEZES PUSH THE BEST CONVERGENCE EASTWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MID 90S LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR. ON TUESDAY...SOME COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOWER POTENTIAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS STILL IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT
NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...UPPER TROF WILL BE BACKING SW
ACROSS THE SE U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROF AND THE ASSOC SFC BOUNDARY WILL
IN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA EARLY WED...THEN
SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS WX SYSTEM SHOULD GIVE
US INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WED...THE FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH DURING THE DAY WED. BY WED
NIGHT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH...THUS WILL CUT
BACK POPS THAT NIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR OUR AREA THURSDAY...
BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER NORTH FL...WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE FOR INCREASED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY. LITTLE CHANGE FOR FRIDAY...THEN BY SATURDAY THIS TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AND ATTM PREFER TO STAY NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMO
VALUES FOR DIURNAL POPS. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND FROM OUR TERMINALS...SO FOR
NOW WILL COVER THIS WITH A SCT CB CLOUD GROUP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CANT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER AT ONE OR TWO OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AS THE DIMINISHING ACTIVITY DRIFTS TO THE WEST OFFSHORE.
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTM ACTIVITY...MAINLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS REST
OF TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING RIGHT
ALONG OUR CENTRAL COAST WHERE HIGH DWPT AIR MOVING OVER RELATIVELY
COOLER NEARSHORE GULF WATERS IS RESULTING IN SOME SCAT TO LOCALLY
BKN LOW CLOUDS. LATER TONIGHT...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...ESP IN
VCNT OF AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL
COVER THIS WITH A BRIEF TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW...WITH THE DAY STARTING OUT WITH SOME PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS...THEN ANOTHER ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SEA BREEZE TSTMS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SO
FAR...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  76  89 /   5  10  10  20
FMY  74  92  74  92 /   5  20  20  20
GIF  74  94  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
SRQ  74  89  74  88 /   5  10  10  20
BKV  69  91  69  90 /  10  20  20  30
SPG  77  91  77  90 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PETRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
513 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-101400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
513 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MOVEMENT FOR TODAYS
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE BEING AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AS
WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SHARP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
307 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FLZ051-102000-
HILLSBOROUGH-
307 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT PLANT CITY...UNTIL 4 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

EJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
359 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FLZ052-102030-
POLK-
359 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN POLK COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT WINSTON...
LAKELAND...CRYSTAL LAKE AND LAKELAND HIGHLANDS...UNTIL 430 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

EJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
647 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FLZ057-102315-
HIGHLANDS-
647 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTH AT 13 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL NORTHERN
HIGHLANDS COUNTY...UNTIL 715 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY
CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND
WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

JLC