Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...U/L LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.  MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SATURDAY AND PERSIST SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS WILL REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH VERY
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM
TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION...WITH DIURNAL POPS AROUND 20 PCNT
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL (HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS AROUND 70) EACH DAY.
THIS TREND WILL BE THE RESULT OF OUR AREA BEING BETWEEN A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOST OF THIS TIME...THUS ALLOWING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WARRANT A 20 POP EACH AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY...AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (30 PCNT) TUE AFTERNOON ASSOC WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL CARRY TEMPOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLD TSTMS
ACTIVITY (BEST CHANCES SOUTH TERMINALS)...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  10  20
FMY  70  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  30
GIF  70  93  71  93 /  20  20  10  20
SRQ  72  92  72  91 /  30  20  10  20
BKV  67  93  67  92 /  20  20  10  20
SPG  75  90  76  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE...NP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
538 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-061-081400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
538 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS TODAY...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS CAN EXPECT SMALL
HAIL...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. THE GENERAL MOTION FOR TODAYS STORMS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...REDUCING RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FLZ060-062-065-081400-
SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
538 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS TODAY...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS CAN EXPECT SMALL
HAIL...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. THE GENERAL MOTION FOR TODAYS STORMS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...REDUCING RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SHARP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
437 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

FLZ051-082115-
HILLSBOROUGH-
437 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

AT 437 PM A SPOTTER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT JUST WEST OF APOLLO BEACH
MOVING TOWARD SHORE. PERSONS IN THE VICINITY SHOULD TAKE CARE IN
CASE THE WATER SPOUT HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES ON SHORE. IF THE SPOUT
DOES MOVE ON SHORE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

NOAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
535 PM EDT FRI JUN 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     HAIL             3 N CAPE CORAL          26.62N 81.99W
06/08/2007  E0.50 INCH       LEE                FL   PUBLIC

            0.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN NORTH CAPE CORAL.

0242 PM     HAIL             2 E BONITA SPRINGS      26.34N 81.75W
06/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       LEE                FL   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED JUST EAST OF BONITA SPRINGS.

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAPE CORAL              26.58N 81.99W
06/08/2007                   LEE                FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES DOWN. FIRE STARTED ON ONE HOME. TIME CHANGED
            BASED ON RADAR.

0328 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N LAND O LAKES       28.24N 82.45W
06/08/2007  E65.00 MPH       PASCO              FL   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND THOMAS LAKE.

0328 PM     HAIL             1 N LAND O LAKES       28.24N 82.45W
06/08/2007  M0.75 INCH       PASCO              FL   PUBLIC

            THOMAS LAKE AREA.

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOWN N COUNTRY        28.01N 82.58W
06/08/2007                   HILLSBOROUGH       FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON CRESTVIEW DR.

0410 PM     HAIL             7 W TAMPA               27.96N 82.60W
06/08/2007  E0.50 INCH       GMZ830             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON HOWARD FRANKLIN BRIDGE.

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SW TAMPA INTERNATIONA 27.91N 82.59W
06/08/2007  E50.00 MPH       GMZ830             FL   PUBLIC

            ON GANDY BRIDGE. WAVES FOUR FEET.

0422 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N HOMOSASSA           28.80N 82.62W
06/08/2007  E3.00 INCH       CITRUS             FL   PUBLIC

            3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES IN SUGAR MILL

0423 PM     HAIL             SAINT PETE CLEARWATER A 27.91N 82.69W
06/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       PINELLAS           FL   PUBLIC

            REPORTED ON ROAD NEAR AIRPORT

0423 PM     HAIL             1 N HOMOSASSA           28.80N 82.62W
06/08/2007  E0.25 INCH       CITRUS             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN SUGAR MILL AREA

0437 PM     WATER SPOUT      2 W APOLLO BEACH        27.77N 82.44W
06/08/2007                   GMZ830             FL   PUBLIC

            2 REPORTS WEST OF APOLLO BEACH

0448 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NNE PALMETTO          27.62N 82.53W
06/08/2007  M39.00 MPH       MANATEE            FL   MESONET

            PORT MANATEE

&&

NOAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
553 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

FLZ052-082230-
POLK-
553 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN POLK COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT HAINES
CITY...POLK CITY...LAKE ALFRED AND AUBURNDALE...UNTIL 630 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...
AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JLC

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