Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
152 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ELEMENT OF
INTEREST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT MENTION
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH ACTIVITY
PERSISTING ALONG THE COASTAL FORECAST AREA AND ISOLATED STRONGER
CELLS INLAND WHERE PEAK AREAS OF INSOLATION HAVE ENHANCED
INSTABILITY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...PROPAGATES WEST AND NORTH-WESTWARD A BAND OF DRIER AIR
WILL IMPACT THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS
THIS SWATH OF DRY AIR STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER LOW...AND EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY NARROW IN ON THE DRIER AIR BETWEEN 800 MB TO
AROUND 250 MB. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. AS THE SYSTEM FURTHER EVOLVES OVER
THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE WITHIN A DEEP AND
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. BML.10

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...UPPER TO SFC RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY SLOWLY DRIFTING E THRU TUE. E-SE FLOW
REGIME TO PRODUCE SCT MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WITH TEMPS AROUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BY MID WEEK UPPER TROF TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. PUSHING SFC FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH KEEPING SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREA.

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE S WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF LOCAL IFR THRU THE EVENING
IMPROVING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
HAZARDS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF CAUTION
LEVELS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE THE EFFECTS FROM THE EVOLVING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MATERALIZE FURTHER. ANTICIPATE
ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  BML.10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  89 /  50  40  30  60
FMY  74  89  74  90 /  50  40  30  60
GIF  73  90  74  91 /  40  40  30  60
SRQ  74  88  75  90 /  50  40  30  60
BKV  72  89  72  90 /  50  40  30  60
SPG  77  87  78  90 /  50  40  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR TAMPA BAY WATERS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20
TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...10
LONG TERM/AVIATION...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
517 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
517 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WEAK SHORT-LIVED
TORNADOES TODAY. THE THREAT FOR WEAK TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES AWAY.

SMALL TORNADOES CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND
POORLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. THE AREA MOST AT RISK WILL BE FROM BONITA
BEACH TO JOHNS PASS...WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TURN ONSHORE.
TO THE NORTH...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE TODAY.

A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN
PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

 TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.  AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

 IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE.  INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES.  ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS.  THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

...MARINE HAZARDS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF
WATERSPOUTS. ALSO...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THIS MORNING MAY
ABATE BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT.
FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT ON FRIDAY AS SOME
DRY AIR MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST BY SATURDAY.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

JILLSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
542 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SE TAMPA              27.91N 82.42W
09/20/2007  M44 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   C-MAN STATION

            MEASURED AT PORT OF TAMPA.

&&

RJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEBSTER                 28.61N 82.05W
09/20/2007  M60 MPH          SUMTER             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
728 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FLZ042-043-048-210030-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-CITRUS-
728 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF CITRUS COUNTY...SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL SUMTER...AND EASTERN HERNANDO COUNTIES...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
THE MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING BUSHNELL...INVERNESS AND BEVERLY
HILLS...UNTIL 830 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY
TRAVEL.

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
742 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W BRADENTON           27.49N 82.64W
09/20/2007                   MANATEE            FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CARPORT DESTROYED IN PALMA SOLA SHORES MOBILE HOME PARK.
            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY LOCAL TV STATION. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR DATA.

&&

RJS