Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...AN INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL DEEPEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TROUGH...PASSING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH BY THE
DEEPENING TROUGH SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH 40/50 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR EACH AFTERNOON.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ONE OR TWO DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRIDAY)...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION ENDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
LIFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.  THIS WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES SPREADING INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.  RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY...WITH GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP AT ANY GIVEN TIME DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER STORMS. MAINLY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  76  90  /  20  40  30  50
FMY  76  93  75  91  /  20  40  30  50
GIF  76  94  74  92  /  20  50  30  50
SRQ  77  91  75  90  /  20  40  30  50
BKV  74  92  71  91  /  20  50  30  50
SPG  80  90  78  88  /  20  40  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...REYNES
LONG TERM/AVIATION....OGLESBY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-202030-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
416 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL COMBINE
WITH THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA TO CREATE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED STORMS FORMING NEAR THE WEST
COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD AND OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES MERGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THE THUNDER THEN YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
221 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FLZ042-201900-
CITRUS-
221 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF CITRUS COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE
MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...UNTIL 300 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING WIPERS...TURN ON
HEADLIGHTS. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR
CAUSE HYDROPLANING.

SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE DIE IN WEATHER RELATED AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS
EACH YEAR... MANY DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND WET ROADS.

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FLZ048-201915-
HERNANDO-
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN HERNANDO COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT BROOKSVILLE...
WEEKI WACHEE AND SPRING HILL...UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50
MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FLZ039-202000-
LEVY-
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LEVY COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
CHIEFLAND AND WEST OF OTTER CREEK...UNTIL 400 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO
TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FLZ051-202030-
HILLSBOROUGH-
402 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT LUTZ...
THONOTOSASSA...TEMPLE TERRACE AND MANGO...UNTIL 430 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
424 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FLZ057-202100-
HIGHLANDS-
424 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
NORTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS COUNTY...INCLUDING SEBRING...UNTIL 500 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN
ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

NP

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