Red Flag Warning 87, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 151849
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
149 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY FOR ALL COUNTIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.A VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY
WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF RH VALUES WELL BELOW 35 PERCENT UNTIL THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN ON SATURDAY THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES
MAY STILL EXPERIENCE ENOUGH DURATIONS FOR WHICH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.  

FLZ039-042-043-048-160700-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0060.071117T1500Z-071118T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0087.071116T1500Z-071117T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
149 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 6
HOURS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH THE MID 20S.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-160700-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0087.071116T1500Z-071117T0000Z/
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
149 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO DROP LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT OF 4 TO 6 HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH THE UPPER 20S.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 160720
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
220 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES FOR LONG DURATIONS OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER AND HERNANDO COUNTIES FOR LONG DURATIONS OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.A VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY
WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF RH VALUES WELL BELOW 35 PERCENT UNTIL THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN ON SATURDAY THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES
MAY STILL EXPERIENCE ENOUGH DURATIONS FOR WHICH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

FLZ039-042-043-048-170000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0087.071116T1500Z-071117T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0060.071117T1500Z-071118T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
220 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 
35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
BELOW 35 PERCENT...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH THE MID 20S. IN ADDITION WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO ABOVE 15 MPH THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING
SOME BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRIEST AIR WILL
SHIFT EAST...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE LOW ENOUGH RH VALUES FOR 4 OR
MORE HOURS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-170000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0087.071116T1500Z-071117T0000Z/
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
220 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 
BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH THE MID 20S. IN ADDITION WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO ABOVE 15 MPH THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING
SOME BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

RJS

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 161813
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
113 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST UNTIL 7 PM EST
ON SATURDAY FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND HERNANDO COUNTIES FOR
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.A VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORT
RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY WITH
EXTENDED PERIODS OF HUMIDITY VALUES WELL BELOW 35 PERCENT UNTIL THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ON SATURDAY THE VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE NATURE COAST WHERE EXTENDED
PERIODS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.

FLZ039-042-043-048-170000-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0060.071117T1500Z-071118T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0088.071117T1500Z-071118T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0087.000000T0000Z-071117T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
113 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
EST ON SATURDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ZONES THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH THE MID 20S. IN ADDITION
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE DRIEST AIR WILL SHIFT
EAST...BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NATURE COAST TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...WITH 4 OR MORE HOURS OF
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-170000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0087.000000T0000Z-071117T0000Z/
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
113 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS ALL
ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW HUMIDITIES WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

JCM/AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE A 1035 HPA HIGH WAS SPILLING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A FRONT ARCING
FROM NY STATE TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF EAST FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME
PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDE SPREAD THROUGH SUNRISE
AND WILL HANDLE WITH NOWCASTS.

MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING
DOWN THE CWFA TODAY AND THEN EXITING SOUTH FL OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT
REMAINS DRY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STAYING NORTH OF FL WILL
KEEP ONLY ISOLATED POPS IN FROM PASCO NORTH TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
A STRAY SHOWER OR 2 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT A SILENT 10 POP
WILL COVER. WEST & NW WINDS PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE ZONES ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST UNDER NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN DROP OFF TONIGHT TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES SAGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST FRI. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR
FOR THE CWFA WITH A CLEAR COOL DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

BY EARLY SAT THE HIGH HAS REACHED THE SE U.S. AND NORTHERN FL. THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH...SETTING UP GOOD
RADIATION COOLING FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE NORTH WILL SEE
MINS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS...THEY COULD
ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THIS IN THE
MORNING HWO. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN
TO RIDGE TO THE EAST DURING SATURDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WARM TO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  RE-INFORCING SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY.  EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.  TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... DRY CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS.  SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY GENERATE A SHOWER
OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS BY
MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
TODAY WITH AN ADVISORY STARTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AND THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND PART OF FRI BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
SLIDES ALONG THE COAST COAST TO THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINERS SHOULD SERIOUSLY CONSIDER ANY VOYAGES UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENOUGH DRY AIR IS EXPECTED FRI TO SUPPORT
UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
DURATIONS OF 4 OR MORE HOURS. SAT CONTINUES DRY BUT TO A LESS
EXTANT. WITH ONLY THE NORTH HAVING MARGINAL DURATIONS WILL HOLD
OFF ON A WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  48  65  46 /  10   5   5   0
FMY  82  52  69  48 /  10   5   5   0
GIF  80  46  66  44 /  10   5   5   0
SRQ  77  52  67  46 /  10   5   5   0
BKV  78  36  63  31 /  20   5   5   0
SPG  76  52  65  51 /  10   5   5   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...RKR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EO