Red Flag Warning 86, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK
SOUTH ON MONDAY OVER GEORGIA WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE SUNSHINE STATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE
APPROACHING WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH RUN.  THEREFORE...HAVE MADE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON A SLIGHTLY
ACCELERATED APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.  IN THE MEANTIME...TRANQUIL
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL COMPLIMENTS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.  EXPECT A RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND VEERING WIND
FLOW REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE ADVERTISED FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A RESPECTABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DIVING DOWN THE ROCKIES FROM WESTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TPA/PIE/SRQ/FMY/RSW TERMINALS.  AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET...IN THE VICINITY OF TPA...BUT MAINLY
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.  SCEC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.  CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX ON MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.  OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
35 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND
INTERIOR.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH NO HAZARDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  78  58  80 /   0   0   0   5
FMY  55  80  59  83 /   0   0   0   5
GIF  53  78  58  81 /   0   0   0   5
SRQ  54  78  57  81 /   0   0   0   5
BKV  45  77  51  80 /   0   0   0   5
SPG  60  76  61  79 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

EO/BL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-102145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
433 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER RISK MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO OR JUST BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 HOURS IN THE DRIEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SUNDAY NIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

RD