Red Flag Warning 79, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS LOWER DUE TO AN U/L
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  TEMPERATURES AND L/L MOISTURE WILL
MODIFY A BIT ON SATURDAY.  AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM FROM TAMPA SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT - THU)...PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AND ROBUST RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...NORTHERN CUBA AND EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
FEATURES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...BOTH GFS AND
DGEX KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH POPS IN THE LOW END 10 PERCENT AND SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY.

AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH DESCENDS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
TUESDAY AND PUSHES THE RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AS THE
HIGH RECEDES...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MODEST TREND TO INCREASING POPS IS IN PLACE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 20/30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES EACH DAY.

WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY TAPPING INTO THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED FOR WARMER VALUES...ESPECIALLY MORNING LOWS. IN
GENERAL TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT AL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR
OR JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT.  WILL LIKELY HAVE DURATIONS OF GREATER
THAN 4 HOURS ACROSS LEVY COUNTY...WITH 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM POLK COUNTY
NORTH.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  70  88  71  /   5   5  10  5
FMY  87  71  90  71  /  10   5  20 10
GIF  86  65  88  66  /   5   5  10  5
SRQ  86  69  88  70  /   5   5  10  5
BKV  85  58  87  60  /   5   5  10  5
SPG  85  73  86  73  /   5   5  10  5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM FOR LEVY
COUNTY.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-122115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY COUNTY WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR
MORE HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY