Red Flag Warning 75, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
405 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
DRY AIRMASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINING SLIM TO NONE.  DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...THIS TIME YESTERDAY...IT LOOKED
AS IF WE WERE GOING TO SEE AN IMPORTANT PATTERN CHANGE ON ABOUT
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH.  UNFORTUNATELY...LATER
MODEL RUNS DID NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA...AND IN FACT...TONIGHTS 00Z
RUN HAS TRENDED EVEN DRIER.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MONDAY NIGHT GETS
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF NEW
ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SECOND HIGH HELPS TO STRENGTHEN THE
RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...
EFFECTIVELY TRAPPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.

ONCE AGAIN...I HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FIRST DAY OF
THE LONG TERM.  THIS IS BECOMING A TREND IN THIS DRY PATTERN...SO
DONT BE SURPRISED IF THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DROP OUT OF THE
FORECAST AS TIME GOES ON.  WHILE I DIDNT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
WEDNESDAYS FORECAST...I DID LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY.
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WENT FROM 40 POPS
DOWN TO 20...AND THAT IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST MEX POPS.
BY FRIDAY...LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL JUST FORECAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW CARRYING PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BASES MOSTLY ABOVE 3000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...EAST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS EACH NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  68  89  69 /   5   5   5   5
FMY  89  67  90  68 /  10   5   5   5
GIF  87  65  88  66 /   5   5   5   5
SRQ  89  66  90  67 /   5   5   5   5
BKV  88  63  89  64 /   5   5   5   5
SPG  86  72  87  73 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM
     INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
504 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-252115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
504 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COMBINED WITH WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CREATE HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WHERE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LONG TERM DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL
CREATE A FIRE DANGER IN AREAS WHERE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER...
WHETHER MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OR NOT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY