Red Flag Warning 74, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
245 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT CANT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT
SHOWER AT SOME POINT DUE TO THE LONG FETCHED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS...BUT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS DUE TO
THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FINALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. BUT FIRST...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER FOR MONDAY AS
CROSS SECTIONS LOOK WAY TO DRY. I ALSO DELAYED THE NORTHWARD
INTRUSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER NOW FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS
OF WEAKENING ALLOWING MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH TO NUDGE NORTHWARD. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT I CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL.

FINALLY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD A BIT ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE
STATE. THIS COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MEX GUIDANCE WITH 40
PERCENT POPS...BUT STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY MAY
KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOWER THERE...SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 10 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU COULD BRING OCCASIONAL
CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 8000 FEET...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY RELAXING...BUT MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT...
COMBINED WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL RESULT IN A
RED FLAG WARNINGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY.  EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND
SUMTER COUNTY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN RH OVER THESE AREAS ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IF ANY WILDFIRES DUE OCCUR SPREAD WOULD BE RATHER RAPID.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  67  89  68 /   5   5   5   5
FMY  89  67  89  68 /   5   5   5   5
GIF  87  66  87  67 /   5   5   5   5
SRQ  90  67  90  67 /   5   5   5   5
BKV  88  63  89  63 /   5   5   5   5
SPG  88  72  87  72 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS
     THAN 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH FOR LEVY...
     CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...
     POLK...MANATEE...SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...CHARLOTTE...
     AND LEE COUNTIES.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
504 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-252115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
504 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COMBINED WITH WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CREATE HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WHERE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LONG TERM DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL
CREATE A FIRE DANGER IN AREAS WHERE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER...
WHETHER MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OR NOT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY