Red Flag Warning 72, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 231805
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
COUNTIES...
...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT
OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILD FIRES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-240000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0050.070524T1700Z-070525T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0072.000000T0000Z-070524T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
205 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH IS OCCURRING ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES
BELOW 35 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE RED
FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL AREAS WILL AGAIN EXPERIENCE 20 FOOT WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO
LIKELY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND COMBINED WITH
THE WINDS MAY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 240007
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
807 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AN INCREASED
THREAT OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILD FIRES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241215-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0072.000000T0000Z-070524T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0050.070524T1700Z-070525T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
807 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. 

WINDS WERE DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
DROP ANOTHER 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GET READY FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY THURSDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING WILD FIRES.  

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ALL
AREAS WILL AGAIN EXPERIENCE 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO LIKELY FALL BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

NOAH

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  DRY
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
RAIN.  PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS WITH EASTERLY
FLOW CREATING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR.
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS EACH EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE VERY LITTLE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOUT THE ONLY REAL CHANGE
THAT TAKES PLACE IS SOME SLOW WARMING ALOFT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.

I REMOVED MEASURABLE POPS NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. I STAYED CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY THE FAR SOUTH WILL
SEE ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN THEN JUST 20
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A BIT AFTER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD...WITH SOME LOWER 90S LIKELY ALONG WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC...BUT JUST A FEW PATCHES ARE MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. WHILE WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
CEILING FROM THESE CLOUDS...THE BASES ARE ABOVE 3000 FEET SO
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EVENING EASTERLY SURGE WILL INCREASE WINDS BACK ABOVE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.  RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  69  90  68 /   5   0   5   0
FMY  91  67  90  67 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  88  65  87  65 /   5   0   5   0
SRQ  91  66  91  66 /   5   0   5   0
BKV  91  63  90  61 /   5   0   5   0
SPG  88  72  88  72 /   5   0   5   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN
     35 PERCENT WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH FOR LEVY...CITRUS...
     SUMTER...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
     MANATEE...SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...
     AND LEE COUNTIES.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 20 NM INCLUDING TAMPA
     BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-222100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP UNDER 35 PERCENT FOR MORE THAN 4
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE LONGEST DURATIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
ALSO POSE A HAZARD TO ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY