Red Flag Warning 71, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 222028
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS...CHARLOTTE AND LEE...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS...

.EXTENDED PERIODS OF RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL BRING RED
FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
DRY AIR WILL LONGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-055>057-060-061-230000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0049.070523T1700Z-070524T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0071.000000T0000Z-070523T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING A DRY AIRMASS WHICH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ALONG
WITH RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT AT TIMES.

THESE OR SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ050-062-065-230000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0049.070523T1700Z-070524T0000Z/
PINELLAS-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING A DRY AIRMASS WHICH WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE. 

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST...AND MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL
INCREASE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
HOWEVER IS VERY LIMITED...AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA AREA...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SARASOTA ALONG THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MODELS ARE LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINT VALUES AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. POPS REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH SILENT 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES FOR WHICH 20
PERCENT REMAIN IN PLACE...WHICH IS STILL ISOLATED AT BEST. IN
GENERAL...BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
STEADY EASTERLY WINDS OVER FLORIDA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND CLIMO WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN WARMING UP AGAIN BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TOMORROW NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  SCEC CONDITIONS
LIKELY...WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER ALL THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THE TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  68  90  69 /  20  10   5   0
FMY  90  67  90  68 /  40  10  10   0
GIF  89  65  90  67 /  20  10   5   0
SRQ  91  65  91  66 /  30  10   5   0
BKV  91  62  90  62 /  30   5   5   0
SPG  87  72  88  73 /  20  10   5   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS
              MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
              ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
              SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
521 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-212130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
521 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR PINELLAS AND LEE COUNTIES.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. 4 TO 6 HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LESS THAN 35 PERCENT IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH
MID WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CAUSE OCCASSIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING SOUTH OF SARASOTA...WHICH
COULD IGNITE ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY