Red Flag Warning 70, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 211915
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
315 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS...

FLZ065-220000-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0070.000000T0000Z-070522T0000Z/
LEE-
315 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

A DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ALONG WITH RH
VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT AT TIMES.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-055>057-060>062-220000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0070.000000T0000Z-070522T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-
315 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

A DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ALONG WITH RH
VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT AT TIMES.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE L/L EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  DEEP LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME OF
THIS DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL CREATE DEW
POINT VALUES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.  HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ALOFT AS AN
U/L RIDGE FORMS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  RIDGE WILL BUILD SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
SARASOTA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...MODEL DATA INSISTS IN
BRINGING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH BASICALLY THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. BROAD SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING GENERALLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS
DESCENDING UPON FLORIDA WILL MAKE IT RATHER DIFFICULT FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO DEVELOP. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE FEATURES TRYING TO APPROACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS THEY MOVE
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
EVEN IF THESE FEATURES MATERIALIZE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP THEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOMING TIGHTER AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHICH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOW END POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH 10/20 PERCENT AT
BEST...EXCEPT CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT MAY HELP IN GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO...WHICH IS WELL DEPICTED IN
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THE TEMPS FIELD
WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON PERIODS OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY OVER PIE...FMY AND RSW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH
TUESDAY.  GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR MORE THAN 4 HOURS.  EXCEPTION
WILL BE LEE AND PINELLAS COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS
WILL EXIST.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  68  91  70 /   5   0  10   5
FMY  89  67  91  67 /  10   5  30  10
GIF  89  65  91  67 /   5   0  10  10
SRQ  89  66  91  67 /   5   0  20  10
BKV  89  59  91  62 /   0   0   5   5
SPG  86  73  87  74 /   5   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR CITRUS-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-
     POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
457 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
457 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS COVERING WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH DRY BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TODAY...WHERE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT. TONIGHT
AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE WILL INCREASE WINDS CLOSE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT LIMITED DURATIONS
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS VENTURING INTO THE GULF TODAY SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

..FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
A LARGE PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANATEE HARDEE COUNTIES NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 35 PERCENT ALONG WITH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
OR LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW ON MONDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW DRAWS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JCM/AR