Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 041906
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
206 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM THIS
EVENING FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...
...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 4 OR
MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ELSEWHERE ON THE NATURE COAST...

.COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR LOW
HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY EDGE SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA EACH DAY AS SUNSHINE INCREASES AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RISE.

FLZ042-043-050715-
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CITRUS-SUMTER-
206 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

THIS AFTERNOON: HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS NOW IN THE 40 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE...AND MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 35
PERCENT BY 3 OR 4 PM BEFORE RISING AGAIN. ANY DURATION OF HUMIDITY
BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL BE AN HOUR OR LESS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THOUGH CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH...THUS ALLOWING SUFFICIENT HEATING TO PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AND DROP HUMIDITY LOCALLY TO 25
PERCENT. LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EACH COUNTY MAY
SEE 6 HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

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/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0008.070205T1700Z-070205T2300Z/
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LEVY-
206 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM
EST MONDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

THIS AFTERNOON: HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF LEVY COUNTY BY 3 PM...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 5 PM BEFORE QUICKLY RISING ABOVE 35 PERCENT BY 6 PM OR SO. 

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THOUGH CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH...THUS ALLOWING SUFFICIENT HEATING TO PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AND DROP HUMIDITY LOCALLY TO 25
PERCENT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE 6 OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ048-050715-
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HERNANDO-
206 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA...DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER OR MID 30S.
THOUGH CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE...THEY SHOULD REMAIN HIGH...THUS
ALLOWING SUFFICIENT HEATING TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
60S AND DROP HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY WILL
LAST. A DECISION WILL BE MADE ON WHETHER TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

BSG

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
215 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES
TO ADVECT MID AND U/L MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST U.S.  THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
OVERRUN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BEING PRODUCED ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH L/L DRY AIR GRADUALLY ADVECTING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH JET CIRRUS SHIELD
FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
STATE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS
OVER SOUTH FL FOR FRI AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SW
GULF. ALOFT SOME SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE NEAR ZONAL
FLOW AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET SETS UP OVER THE STATE FRI AND SAT.
THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA FRI AND SAT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
WED AND THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND THU. TEMPS THEN RISE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN TODAY...BUT REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH
POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER AND SOUTHERN WATERS.  SLIGHTLY
WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE TAMPA BAY SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT SCEC
CONDITIONS.  GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS.  A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR LEVY...CITRUS...AND NORTHERN SUMTER
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  DRY AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM HERNANDO
COUNTY NORTH FOR LOW RH DURATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  45  65  43 /  40  30   5   5
FMY  66  50  66  46 /  60  30  30  20
GIF  62  44  65  42 /  40  30   5   5
SRQ  63  48  65  44 /  40  30  20   5
BKV  61  38  65  32 /  40  30   5   5
SPG  62  47  65  49 /  40  30   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY...CITRUS...AND
     NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTIES.

     A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND HERNANDO COUNTIES.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS MORNING
              FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM
              INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
552 AM EST SAT FEB 3 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031700-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
552 AM EST SAT FEB 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.