Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2007

Red Flag Warning 63, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

May 4, 20075 counties in Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at May 4, 2007, 4:20 AM EDT for 5 counties in Florida. It took effect at May 4, 2007, 1:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 4, 2007, 4:20 AM EDT (08:20 UTC)
In effect from
May 4, 2007, 1:00 PM EDT
Expired
May 4, 2007, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Counties DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sumter County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2007-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2007-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 0 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2144 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
0 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 040820
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TODAY...

.CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO BELOW
35 PERCENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE WIND WILL BRING RELIEF
TO THE COAST...LIMITING DURATIONS THERE.

FLZ039-042-043-050000-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0042.070504T1700Z-070505T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0063.070504T1700Z-070505T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
420 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$
2 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 041810
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TODAY...

.CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO
BELOW 35 PERCENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE WIND WILL BRING
RELIEF TO THE COAST...LIMITING DURATIONS THERE.

FLZ052-056-057-061-050000-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0063.000000T0000Z-070505T0000Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW 35 PERCENT ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW DURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST 4 HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-050000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0063.000000T0000Z-070505T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 041812 CCA
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

CORRECTED OVERVIEW HEADLINE

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND 
CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY...

.CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO
BELOW 35 PERCENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE WIND WILL BRING
RELIEF TO THE COAST...LIMITING DURATIONS THERE.

FLZ052-056-057-061-050000-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0063.000000T0000Z-070505T0000Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW 35 PERCENT ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW DURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST 4 HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-050000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0063.000000T0000Z-070505T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at May 4, 3:40 AM EDT, 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 4, 3:40 AM EDT, 40 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
340 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHICH
HELPED DEVELOP THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ANOTHER ONE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LATER TODAY.  COMBINATION OF THIS IMPULSE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH BEST CHANCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE AREA NORTHWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S.  MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ON SATURDAY BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO
CAUSE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER INLAND
AREAS.  ON SUNDAY A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL
PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEADING TO SOME MUCH NEEDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
FOR SUNDAY DAYTIME HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM THANKS TO THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...BUT STILL IN THE 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
MOSTLY INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 70 ALONG TAMPA BAY AND THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT WITH LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH STILL QUITE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AS
STRATOCUMULUS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC.  SOME SLOW
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

THE LARGE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND BRING
EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS AROUND AND GUSTY WINDS.  THEN WELL SEE A SLOW WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE AVERAGE...NEAR 90 DEGREES
IN THE INTERIOR BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND A LOT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...BUT WE
SHOULD SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG
ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH.  OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...WE ARE SEEING SMOKE AND FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. WE COULD SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR FMY/RSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING WITH THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE BEHIND THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO
THE 30S...POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WILL ACHIEVE DURATIONS LONG ENOUGH FOR
A RED FLAG WARNING.  WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL
HEADLINE WITH 1 TO 3 HOURS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/RED FLAG
WARNINGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  71  88  72 /  10  10  20  20
FMY  92  70  91  69 /  20  20  20  20
GIF  92  67  90  68 /  20  10  20  20
SRQ  87  68  86  69 /  10  10  20  20
BKV  91  62  90  63 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  89  74  88  74 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CITRUS-LEVY-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ
Hazardous weather outlook, May 3, 5:14 AM EDT, 23 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
514 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060-061-032030-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
514 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS RESULTING IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MORE THAN 4 HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FLZ062-065-032030-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
514 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN
OUTSIDE...IF YOU SEE SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM...HEAD TO
A SAFE PLACE IMMEDIATELY...MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR
RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 4, 6:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWLee19 min

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2007Every red flag warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.