Red Flag Warning 62, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 031802
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
202 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE NATURE COAST AND
INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY FOR THE NATURE COAST...

.THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. THIS DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BUT MODERATE SOME.

FLZ039-042-043-040000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0042.070504T1700Z-070505T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0062.000000T0000Z-070504T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
202 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE LOW
HUMIDITIES AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ048-049-051-052-056-057-061-040000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0062.000000T0000Z-070504T0000Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
202 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE LOW
HUMIDITIES AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
316 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...SFC RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WX FOR TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SFC DWTPS WITH LIGHT
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND VERY SLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION. AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND A LITTLE FURTHER TODAY...
PERHAPS MAKING IT TO OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER DRY (PW
<1.25 INCHES MOST OF THE DAY) ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE FOR A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE TSTM BEING ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. WILL CARRY A 20 POP FOR
THOSE COUNTIES...AND THIS SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH NAM PROGS AS WELL.
TEMPS TODAY AGAIN VERY WARM IF NOT HOT IN SOME SPOTS...UPR 80S TO
AROUND 90 WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING 91-93. ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT UPR FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE WEAK RIPPLES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...WHICH IF TIMED RIGHT CAN HELP ENHANCE ANY ISOLD SEA
BREEZE TSTMS THAT DO FORM.

SIMILAR FEATURES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TSTMS. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL AGAIN BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND LIKE RECENT
DAYS...BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20 POPS FOR ISOLD TSTMS FROM POLK CO
SOUTH TO LEE CO. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP FORECAST.

ON SATURDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SHORT WAVE THATS CURRENTLY
OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST AND UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AS IT APPROACHES
FL. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES ON ITS WAY TO MERGING INTO AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP ENHANCE ANY SEA BREEZE TSTM ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
30 PCNT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AND KEPT 20 POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN HALF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...LATEST GFS RUN IS SLOWER
WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH MEANS SLOWER
CLEARING ON MONDAY. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY ADDED 20 POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

FIRST...LINGERING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL END
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH A DRY PERIOD AFTER THAT. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY...BUT I AM NOT READY TO COMMIT TO KEEPING THE MORNING DRY JUST
YET SINCE SOME SHOWERS COULD ALREADY BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM
THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS HEATING ADDS A BOOST. 00Z GFS HAS AN IMPULSE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH
ADDS MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM ABOUT THE BAY AREA NORTH...BUT THIS
FEATURE LOOKS UNREALISTIC AND I HAVE IGNORED THE IMPACT FOR NOW. MEX
POPS CONTINUE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO
I HAVE INCREASED TO 40 FOR ALL AREAS.

SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EASTERLY SURGE BEHIND
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS STATED
EARLIER...I LEFT THE 20 POPS IN PLACE.

IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SURGE...BUT WOULDNT
BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPRINKLES OCCUR UNDER THE FAST MOVING
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. WILL NOT ADD POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AT THIS
TIME.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE AND PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5
MILES AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. E/SE FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
THE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE SATURDAY. 15KT ESE
WINDS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY WITH THIS PATTERN. THEN ONCE THE
BACKDOOR FRONT PASSES ACROSS ON SUNDAY...WINDS ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
WILL INCREASE FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15-20KT AND GUSTY POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY DEEP DRY AIR...VIGOROUS DEEP
MIXING...AND 55-60 DEGREE AFTERNOON SFC DWPTS...WILL SUPPORT RFW
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR CWA. THE AREAS AT MOST RISK WILL BE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN EAST OF THE SEA BREEZE PENETRATION. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF FIRE WX WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR FRIDAY...BUT SINCE
FORECAST RHS ARE NEAR CRITICAL AGAIN WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  71  88  72 /  10   5  10  10
FMY  90  69  89  71 /  20   5  20  20
GIF  91  69  90  70 /  10   5  20  10
SRQ  87  68  86  69 /  10   5  10  10
BKV  90  61  89  62 /  10   5  10  10
SPG  88  75  89  73 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-
     PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...NP
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE...EJ