Red Flag Warning 56, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 AM EDT WED APR 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...EACH OF THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAG A FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL WEAKEN...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE FRONT WILL LOSE STEAM AND SLOW
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.

FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SOME WARMING TODAY AND THURSDAY. WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS
THICKENING TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. THEN INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL STOP THAT TREND. NOT
TOO IMPRESSED WITH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT GIVEN HOW DRY
WEVE BEEN. ALSO DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS LIMITED TO SHOWERS. HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST...BUT KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...THE GFS AND DGEXS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE SHORT WAVES AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
SO WILL USE A BLEND. A NARROW BAND OF DECAYING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LOW SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO A SILENT
10% IN THE GRIDS. ON SATURDAY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA SHOULD SUPPORT A
PLEASANT DRY DAY...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG
THE SEA BREEZES OVER INTERIOR ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY EVENING COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SO WILL MAINTAIN
10% POPS. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE GFS/DGEXS SHOW A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DRAG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE VIA TIME CROSS-SECTIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES WITH POPS REMAINING
IN THE 10% RANGE.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COAST EACH AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES WITH DRY
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED. LATEST MEX POPS REFLECTS THESE TRENDS SO WILL
CONTINUE TO DEPICT 10% POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR BOTH DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS (LOWER 80S)
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. 00Z MEX TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS SO ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...UFFICIENT MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT PERIODS OF BROKEN CU/STRATO-CU CLOUDS AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL
SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...BUT
CEILING HEIGHTS AOA 5KFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER TRICKY CALL TODAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL
ZONES ALMOST MADE 4 HOURS DURATION YESTERDAY. GIVEN SIMILAR
AFTERNOON DRY DEWPOINTS...BELIEVE THEYLL MAKE THAT 4 HOURS TODAY.
LIMITING FACTOR NEAR THE COAST WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE.
THUS WILL RAISE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE INTERIOR 4 COUNTIES OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA. LEFT SUMTER COUNTY OUT BECAUSE DRIEST AIR LOOKED
TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECTING ANOTHER CLOSE DAY THURSDAY...AND TOO MARGINAL TO ISSUE A
WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  68  86  71 /   5   5  10  10
FMY  89  66  89  69 /   5   5  10  10
GIF  88  66  89  68 /   5   5  10  10
SRQ  84  65  85  68 /   5   5  10  10
BKV  87  60  88  64 /   5   5  10  10
SPG  85  71  86  73 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
452 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
452 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SHARP