Red Flag Warning 53, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 221753
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
153 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

...DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK...

.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
INTO FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-231130-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0036.070423T1700Z-070424T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0053.000000T0000Z-070422T2300Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
153 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER THE REGION WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING 
BELOW 35 PERCENT. DURATION OF THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL LAST UP TO 4
HOURS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO LOW 
HUMIDITY...GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF 
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL ADD
TO THE RISK OF RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT MAY START.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THUS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24
HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN
THE FIELD.

&&

FOR ALL YOUR LOCAL FIRE WEATHER NEEDS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY AND CLICK ON FIRE WX.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-055-060-231130-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0036.070423T1700Z-070424T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
153 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 

DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON MONDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. IN
ADDITION TO LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY
FUELS WILL ADD TO THE RISK OF RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
MAY START.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
312 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

.SYNOPSIS...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AN ALOFT DOMINATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
MEAN LITTLE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS MODEL DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT
UNTIL THEN...BUT SATURDAY COULD BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AS RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN A BIT BY THEN.

SYNOPTICALLY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THEN EASE INTO THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT
LEAST.  BY SATURDAY...THE JURY IS OUT ON WHETHER THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS FLORIDA OR IS REPLACED BY A GLANCING
TROUGH.  AT THIS POINT...ONLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO SUBTLY BRING
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA WHILE NOGAPS AND 18Z
DGEX RETAIN MORE TROUGHING AND HENCE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
ECMWF WAS ONLY IN THROUGH 96 HOURS AND SIMILAR TO OTHER MODELS AT
THAT POINT.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING.  SURFACE HUMIDITY WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
THURSDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER.  BY FRIDAY...ENOUGH
MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND BUT
PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF AS SHORT WAVE MAY HELP THINGS ALONG.
FOR SATURDAY...HAVE GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE SHARP DRYING SHOWN BY
THE GFS AS THE TREND MAY BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NOGAPS/DGEX EACH
WHICH CUT OFF A WEAK UPPER CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH.
STILL...GAVE THE TREND A SLIGHT NOD AND WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
WESTERLY IVE LOWERED DEW POINTS INLAND A HAIR.  ONCE AGAIN...HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OWING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY.

EVEN IF RAIN OCCURS...IT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
FOR MOST...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST...MID TO LATE WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK ON THE MARK...WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S (NEAR 90 INLAND) WITH NIGHTS WARMING TOWARD 70 NEAR THE COAST
AND MID 60S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS STARTED THE EVENING BUT THESE HAVE
SINCE THINNED.  EXPECT ONLY A FEW LEFT BY DAYBREAK...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH TERMINALS...THEN A REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWER VFR CUMULUS
(3500 TO 5000 FEET) RAISING TOWARD 6 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET TOWARD
EVENING.  DEEPER DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE A CATEGORY LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT.  IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...EXPECT A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SURGE OF EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-22 KNOTS
IN SOME SPOTS BEFORE QUIETING DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NIGHTLY SURGE CAME EARLY YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE SINCE
DIED DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS AND WILL BE ABLE TO DROP EXERCISE
CAUTION WITH MORNING PACKAGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO BACK UP TO THAT
LEVEL TONIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT AS TOO EARLY TO HEADLINE.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES IN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SPOTS HAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.
TODAY...AIR WILL GET DRIER HOWEVER AS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
REDUCE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. STILL...WAS NOT ABLE TO
GET 4 OR MORE HOURS OF DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR HUMIDITY.
ANY LOCATIONS THAT VERIFY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE BECAUSE OF 15 MPH
PLUS WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. BASED ON AREA WITH TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS WELL AS STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE ISSUED A WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR COUNTIES
AS WELL AS CHARLOTTE AND LEE. EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...AND
SARASOTA MAY ALSO GO AND WILL HEADLINE AS SUCH...BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS INLAND AND SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  61  83  62 /   5   5   5   5
FMY  85  61  85  62 /   5   5   5   5
GIF  83  60  84  61 /   5   5   5   5
SRQ  84  59  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
BKV  83  53  84  53 /   5   5   5   5
SPG  80  66  81  67 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BSG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
437 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-221400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
437 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STABILIZE THE AREA TODAY
AND ALLOW DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON TO DANGEROUS LEVELS BUT WILL
COMBINE WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH TO CREATE A THREAT FOR THE SPREAD
OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP. THE DRIEST AIR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WHERE
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

OTHERWISE NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SOMEWHAT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MARGINAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON. RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SHARP