Red Flag Warning 52, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 201636
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1236 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING UPDATED TO INCLUDE CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
AS DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SINK SOUTH TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE STORMS WEST
SIDE CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY EXACERBATE CONDITIONS.  AS THE LOW
WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE.

FLZ062-065-202300-
/O.EXB.KTBW.FW.W.0052.070420T1636Z-070420T2300Z/
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1236 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IS NOW EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN 4 TO 5 HOURS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT
OVER THE NATURE COAST...AND INTERIOR AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
25 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW HUMIDITY...LOCALLY GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS WOULD EXACERBATE THE THREAT FOR WILD OR BRUSH FIRE
SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-056-057-061-202300-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FW.W.0052.070420T1636Z-070420T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
1236 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IS NOW EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN 4 TO 5 HOURS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT
OVER THE NATURE COAST...AND INTERIOR AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
25 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW HUMIDITY...LOCALLY GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS WOULD EXACERBATE THE THREAT FOR WILD OR BRUSH FIRE
SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RUNS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WHEREAS LOW PRESSURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS HIGH
IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TODAY. NEVERTHELESS
IT WILL BRING DRIER NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING JUST BELOW NORMAL. MAY ALSO SEE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COME IN AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW.

MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS START TO COME IN FROM THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THEYLL SURVIVE TOO FAR
INLAND. KEPT AS SILENT POPS FOR NOW. THEN ON SATURDAY A SHORT WAVE
WILL RIDE ACROSS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND MAY ALLOW A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTH TO SILENT CHANCE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND WE SHOULD BE SEEING
MORE SUNNY SKIES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES GOING BACK TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...AFTER REMNANT OF WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE EASES SOUTH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY...500 MB
RIDGE TAKES OVER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY SLIDES SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS SLIPS ACROSS...THEN EAST...OF THE STATE. AFTER PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN CUMULUS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  BY THURSDAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE ALLOWING SOME SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND LIKELY ADDITIONAL CIRRUS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA.  AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE SCATTERED/BROKEN AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

THE PERIOD LOOKS RAIN-FREE...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN JUST A 10 PERCENT CHANCE.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES BEGIN
THE WEEK AT NORMAL LEVELS (DAYTIME 80 TO 85 AND NIGHTTIME 60 TO 65)
BUT VALUES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN ADDITION...COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE
OF ISSUES:  SMOKE PLUME FROM 25,000 ACRE FIRE IN S.E. GEORGIA.
SURFACE/MIXING WINDS BEGIN THE DAY NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SMOKE AWAY.  HOWEVER...BY THIS EVENING WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTHEAST
AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SMOKE PLUME DRIFTS BACK.
DONT EXPECT WINDS TO HOLD FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...RATHER WINDS SHOULD TURN EAST/NORTHEAST
WHICH WOULD QUICKLY DRIVE THE PLUME INTO THE PANHANDLE.

SECOND...THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE THIS
EVENING AS STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AND GRADIENT SHARPENS TO
4-5 MB ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PENINSULA.  EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
EVENING GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS NEAR THE WATER...AND HAVE ADDED FROM
KSRQ-KTPA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AS SYNOPTIC
FLOW HAS US IN A COL BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A LOW
COMING OFF OF THE GEORGIA COAST. AS THE LOW TRAVELS DOWN THE EAST
COAST...WILL SEE MORE OF A NORTHERLY INFLUENCE ON THE WINDS...UP
TO AROUND 15 KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THAT SHOULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS
UP TO AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA IF NOT ADVISORIES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DIFFICULT CALL THIS MORNING. FORECAST FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY GETS US DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXPECT VALUES TO HOVER
AROUND 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER...TODAY WINDS AND DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER...AND THE COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
COUNTIES TO VERIFY. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE CURRENT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE SAME COUNTIES. WILL ADD HEADLINE FOR NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

FOR SATURDAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES UP
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS LEVY COUNTY. WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT
THIS TIME BECAUSE AM ONLY GETTING MIN HUMIDITIES RIGHT AROUND 35
PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  61  80  60 /   5   5  10  10
FMY  85  64  85  62 /   5   5  20  10
GIF  81  61  79  59 /   5  10  20  10
SRQ  80  60  80  59 /   5   5  10  10
BKV  80  56  80  53 /   5   5  10   5
SPG  79  65  79  65 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BSG