Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 291850
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
150 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
COUNTIES FOR LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES... 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES...

.A VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY. THIS DRY
AIR WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
ON TUESDAY.

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-055>057-060>062-065-292300-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0006.070130T1700Z-070130T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0006.070130T1700Z-070130T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-070129T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
150 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM
EST TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM
TONIGHT. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. FOUR TO SIX HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY
START WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ050-292300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-070129T2300Z/
PINELLAS-
150 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY 30-34 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTY...WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM
THIS EVENING. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 35
PERCENT ACROSS PINELLAS COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

...VERY COLD CONDITIONS NEXT FEW DAYS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX THAT PUSHED
INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING RACING NEWARD INTO
ATLANTIC IN FAST UPPER FLOW. SAT IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THRU THE DEEP SOUTH AS
LONG WAVE TROF DEEPENS AND AMPLIFIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. DRY ARCTIC FRONT TO PUSH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND FRONT.

SEVERAL CONCERNS TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING DOWN THE PENINSULA.
FIRST WILL BE POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPS OVER LEVY COUNTY. TIMING IS
EVERYTHING WITH THE FRONT...IT MOVES THRU AS MODELS SUGGEST WE
EXPECT 1-2 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY...BUT IF
IT SPEEDS UP LONGER DURATIONS MAY OCCUR. MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO COLD WITH THESE TYPES OF ADVECTIVE EVENTS MOST OF THE WINTER SO
WILL LEAN ON SLIGHTLY HIGHER NAM MOS FOR NORTHERN ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF THE AIRMASS FOR UPDATES LATER THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL
VALUES BELOW 25 OVER THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 30 AROUND
THE BAY AREA...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER PINELLAS CO. WILL ISSUE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FROM THE BAY AREA NWARD TONIGHT. TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO
FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BOTTOM OUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE E GULF CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LARGE DANGEROUS
WAVES...OF 4 TO 6 FT...ALONG AREA BEACHES SO HI SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MON.

MONDAY...VERY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 50S N...MID 50S
CENTRAL AND NEAR 60 S. THATS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NT...COLDEST NIGHT IN NEARLY 2 YEARS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR
SKIES LIGHT WINDS TO SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET WITH LONG DURATIONS...8 TO POSSIBLE 12
HOURS... OF FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NATURE COAST...BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 20S FOR HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WHILE NORMALLY COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR 3 TO
6 HOURS. HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH INTO THESE AREAS. FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE ONLY ISSUED WITHIN 24 HOURS OF EVENT...SO EXPECT ONE TO
BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING. FROST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA AND HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS AND ZONES. TEMPS SOME 20+
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY...SLIGHTER WARMER BUT STILL 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE FROM THE W GULF AS SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC MODERATING TEMPS WITH INCREASING UPPER CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE STATE
FROM THE NW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED.
TEMPS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MODERATING TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WED INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID
60S CENTRAL AND UPPER 60S SOUTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
POSSIBLE AS A FEW SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE AREA ALOFT AND MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO
OVER THE ATLANTIC WED NIGHT AS THE GULF LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NE ACROSS N
FL/S GA/S AL THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH THE SYSTEM. MIN TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL WED NIGHT AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT UNDER
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
COOLING A BIT TO NEAR NORMAL. THE MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL HAVE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR VFR THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE E GULF THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
20+ KTS OF WIND OFFSHORE WHILE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN OVER THE BAY. LATEST REPORTS OVER THE BAY SHOWING 15 TO 20
KTS SO WILL ALLOW SCA TO BECOME SCEC FOR TAMPA BAY AND KEEP SCA
FLYING OFFSHORE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS. GRADIENT SLACKENS
FURTHER MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHT MON NT-TUE. NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THRU THE GULF MID-LATE
WEEK WITH INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS TO FILTER OVER THE
PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH BONE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RH
FALLING IN THE MID 20S MOST AREAS FOR LONG DURATION SO RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY AGAIN TO BE
DRY WITH RH FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MOST AREAS
EXCEPT PINELLAS CO. FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES TUE FOR THOSE
AREAS. LL MOISTURE RETURNS WED FOR ABOVE CRITICAL RH LEVELS REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  41  55  34  61 /   0   0   0   5
FMY  47  62  37  68 /   5   0   0   5
GIF  39  56  34  61 /   0   0   0   5
SRQ  46  57  35  63 /   0   0   0   5
BKV  33  53  22  59 /   0   0   0   5
SPG  46  54  41  61 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE
     SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-
     MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR CITRUS-
     HARDEE-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...RD
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
538 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048-281645-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
538 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

..COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY MORNING...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER THE GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY TO 8 FEET BEFORE
SLOWLY SUBSIDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...
AND BECOME REINFORCED WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. EARLY MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH NORTH WINDS AT 5 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ON TUESDAY...THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR WILL REACH THE NATURE
COAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FREEZE BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS MAY CAP OUTGOING RADIATION AND KEEP
READINGS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...NO ACTIVATION REQUIRED.

FLZ049>052-055>057-060-061-281645-
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
538 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

...ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF WITH RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT THE GULF BEACHES...
...COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE FREEZE
INLAND TUESDAY MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 FEET THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
SUBSIDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...
AND BECOME REINFORCED WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. EARLY MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH NORTH WINDS AT 10 MPH WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON TUESDAY...THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR WILL REACH THE TAMPA BAY
AND SARASOTA BRADENTON AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A
POSSIBLE FREEZE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO OR
JUST BELOW 32 FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER RURAL...SHELTERED...AND
PREFERRED SUBURBAN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
CAP OUTGOING RADIATION AND KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS
FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...NO ACTIVATION REQUIRED

FLZ062-065-281645-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
538 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

...ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF WITH RIP CURRENTS BY DAYBREAK AT THE GULF BEACHES...
...COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILL...
...HAZARDOUSOUS BOATING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 FEET THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OUT...SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...
AND BECOME REINFORCED WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. EARLY MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 WITH NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON TUESDAY...THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 30 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...NO ACTIVATION REQUIRED.