Red Flag Warning 47, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1013 AM EDT THU APR 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS AND MSAS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST NOW PUSHING
INTO LEVY CNTY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND DRIER AIR. THE PCPN & TSTMS
FROM EARLIER HAVE NOW SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTH
CWFA. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED ZONE
FORECAST SHORTLY TO DROP POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND END BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE TWO SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS OK.

&&

.AVIATION...JUST AMENDED THE NORTHERN TAFS TO ADD A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD
OF LOW MVFR CEILING AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CONTINUED HIGH DEW
POINTS (NEAR 70) ALONG WITH THE ANTECEDENT SURFACE MOISTURE ALLOW
1200 TO 1800 FOOT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE OR DEVELOP.
AS WINDS EASE AROUND TO WEST...THEN NORTHWEST...AND DAYTIME HEATING
KICKS IN THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH...DESPITE BEING WORKED OVER BY PRE-DAWN
THUNDERSTORMS...KRSW AND KFMY ARE RE-HEATING AND COULD SEE A PASSING
SHOWER BEFORE NOON WITH A BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO MVFR.
HOWEVER...THE WIND SHIFT WILL SPREAD QUICKLY DOWN THE COAST AND VFR
CLEAR SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL
REMOVE RW/TSTM TODAY IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WHEN THE NEXT ISSUANCE
GOES OUT AROUND 1030.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LEVY COUNTY COULD SEE SUB 35 PERCENT RH TODAY BUT
PERHAPS ONLY FOR 3 HOURS OR LESS. ON FRI THE DRY AIR SETTLES IN
WITH A WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...09/RKR
AVIATION UPDATE...88/BSG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
459 AM EDT THU APR 12 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-121500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
459 AM EDT THU APR 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...

DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE SUNSET. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL BE
WELL ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG...BRINGING A MULTITUDE
OF HAZARDS TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT MAY BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS LINE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND SEAS COULD PEAK AT CLOSE TO
10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. MARINERS WITH WEEKEND PLANS ARE URGED TO
FOLLOW THIS HAZARDOUS SITUATION CLOSELY.

HAZARDOUS SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FLZ055>057-060>062-065-121500-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
459 AM EDT THU APR 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS
SOUTH OF A MANATEE-HARDEE-POLK COUNTY LINE TODAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH PEA
SIZED HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND FORT
MYERS.

THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE THE FREQUENT AND
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG...BRINGING A MULTITUDE
OF HAZARDS TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT MAY BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS LINE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND SEAS COULD PEAK AT CLOSE
TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. MARINERS WITH WEEKEND PLANS ARE URGED TO
FOLLOW THIS HAZARDOUS SITUATION CLOSELY.

HAZARDOUS SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

JILLSON