Red Flag Warning 45, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 061549
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1149 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2007

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY...

.DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
EVEN DRIER AIR EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FLZ050-062-065-070000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0030.070408T1500Z-070409T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-070407T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0045.070407T1500Z-070408T0000Z/
PINELLAS-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1149 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. 

DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S WILL ALLOW FOR FOUR TO FIVE HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. 

EVEN DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. DURATIONS COULD BE UP TO 7 HOURS IN MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...SAVE FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN 10 TO 15 MILES OF
THE COAST WHERE DURATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 4 HOURS. OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-055>057-060-061-070000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0030.070408T1500Z-070409T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-070407T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0045.070407T1500Z-070408T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
1149 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. 

HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 35 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND READINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. DURATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE HUMIDITY...20
FOOT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.

EVEN DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. DURATIONS COULD BE UP TO 7 HOURS IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SAVE FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN 10 TO 15 MILES OF THE
COAST WHERE DURATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 4 HOURS. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 070012
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
812 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2007

...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE A HIGH THREAT FOR WILD OR BRUSH FIRE SPREAD...
...CONTINUED DRY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER...

.CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-071130-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-070407T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0045.070407T1500Z-070408T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0030.070408T1500Z-070409T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
812 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY: VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SATURDAY. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE UP TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS
WILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES LOWER IN SOME PLACES...LEADING TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD 20 PERCENT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BETWEEN
2 AND 5 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE HUMIDITY...20 FOOT SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH...EXACERBATING
THE THREAT FOR WILD OR BRUSH FIRE SPREAD.  

DURATION OF LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LONG AS 9 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY: THE VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LIKELY FALLING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY...AND 20
FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP. DURATIONS OF 6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND THE
WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS SOON AS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

BSG

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 071833
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
233 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2007

...VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE A HIGH THREAT FOR WILD OR BRUSH FIRE
SPREAD... 
...CONTINUED VERY DRY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER...

.CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHTER
SUNDAY BUT LONG DURATION OF LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-080000-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0030.070408T1500Z-070409T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0046.070408T1500Z-070409T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-070408T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
233 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM
EDT SUNDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
PM EDT THIS EVENING.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE EARLIER PRODUCED ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER NEAR THE GULF FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH...AND
HUMIDITY IN THESE AREAS HAD BEEN INITIALLY SLOW TO FALL.
HOWEVER...VALUES HAVE NOW FALLEN JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS MANY
AREAS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT BY 4 OR 5 PM. DURATIONS OF CRITICAL
HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 4 HOURS TOWARD THE COAST TO 8 HOURS
INLAND FROM POLK COUNTY SOUTH.

ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN TO OR BELOW 25
PERCENT AT 2 PM AND WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT IN
MANY LOCATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35
PERCENT WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HUMIDITY...20 FOOT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20
MPH...EXACERBATING THE THREAT FOR WILD OR BRUSH FIRE SPREAD.

SUNDAY: THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED...WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY LIKELY FALLING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 2
AND 5 PM. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTH...AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP. DURATIONS OF 7 TO 10 HOURS OF
CRITICAL HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

BSG

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
220 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WITH DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.  GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING.  DECK OF
CIRRUS WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA SO A BIT EARLY YET TO DETERMINE
EXACTLY HOW COLD IT WILL GET BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTH.  BUT IF THE CIRRUS SHIELD
WERE TO MOVE IN EARLIER THAN FORECAST...WHICH CAN HAPPEN WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...THIS
WOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.  A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD
BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. START OUT THE PERIOD. GFS FORECASTS
WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE EAST ALONG STATIONARY
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENNISULA MONDAY.  OVER RUNNING PRECIP EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW WITH
MEX 12 HOUR POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT COLDEST
OF THE AIR NEVER REACHES FLORIDA AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS U.S.

FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PIN POINT TIMING OF
PRECIP CHANCES WED-FRI. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES DUE TO
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GFS PAINTS PRECIP WED AND FRI. NO NEED TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST.

.AVIATION...ALL PRECIP HAS MOVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN KSRQ...KFMY AND KRSW.  HEAVIEST OF THE
RAIN (NOW LOCATED WEST OF NAPLES IN THE GULF) TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
FORT MYERS. ALL SITES TO BE VFR BY 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...BUT GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.  GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PINELLAS COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  50  68  45  /   5   0   0   5
FMY  77  53  74  46  /  10   0   0   5
GIF  74  48  69  45  /   5   0   0   5
SRQ  72  52  69  44  /   5   0   0   5
BKV  72  37  64  33  /   5   0   0   5
SPG  72  54  69  53  /   5   0   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM FOR LEVY-CITRUS-
     SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
     HARDEE-DESOTO-HIGHLANDS COUNTIES FOR LOW RH DURATIONS.

     RED FLAG WARNING SATURDAY DUE TO LOW RH DURATIONS FOR LEVY-
     CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-POLK-MANATEE-
     SARASOTA-HARDEE-DESOTO-HIGHLANDS-CHARLOTTE-AND LEE COUNTIES.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
521 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-052130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
521 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...

DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER LEVY...CITRUS...AND SUMTER
COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PINELLAS COUNTY.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED ACROSS LEE AND CHARLOTEE
COUNTIES.

COOL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY