Red Flag Warning 43, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 051937
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
337 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...COOLER BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY...

.DRY AIR WILL EASE SOUTH ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE
TAMPA BAY AND LAKELAND AREA THIS EVENING. A SURGE OF COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND BE REINFORCED ON
SATURDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS FOR APRIL COVERS THE
ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE DRY AIR EACH DAY.


FLZ039-042-043-052300-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0028.070406T1600Z-070406T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0044.070406T1600Z-070406T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0029.070407T1600Z-070407T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0043.000000T0000Z-070405T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
337 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM
EDT FRIDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 7
PM EDT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

THIS AFTERNOON: RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN NEAR 25 PERCENT
ACROSS LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM BEFORE RISING QUICKLY
TOWARD SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT IN
NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY BY 4 PM AND REMAIN THROUGH 7 PM. 

FRIDAY: HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT AROUND NOON...AND
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT INLAND...AND 25 TO 30
PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COAST...BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE UP TO 7 HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY. IN
ADDITION...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO
20 MPH OR SO ESPECIALLY AROUND NOON WILL ACCOMPANY THE DRY AIR.

SATURDAY: SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP
TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY...BUT DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE 20S TO AROUND 30...ALLOWING HUMIDITY TO FALL TO NEAR 20
PERCENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ048-049-051-052-055>057-060-061-052300-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0028.070406T1600Z-070406T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0044.070406T1600Z-070406T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0029.070407T1600Z-070407T2300Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
337 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY. A NEW FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

THIS AFTERNOON: HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN PORTIONS
OF HERNANDO AND PERHAPS NORTHERN PASCO COUNTY...BUT DURATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS. 

FRIDAY: HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT AROUND NOON IN
HERNANDO...PASCO...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...AND POLK COUNTIES.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY 2 PM IN
DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...EASTERN MANATEE...AND EASTERN
SARASOTA COUNTIES. READINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 25 AND 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA...AND 30 TO
34 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTION. DURATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4
TO 7 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 4 TO 5 HOURS ELSEWHERE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WITHIN 10 OR 15 MILES OF THE GULF COAST WHERE
DURATION OF CRITICAL HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS.  

IN ADDITION TO THE HUMIDITY...20 FOOT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY. 

SATURDAY: EVEN DRIER AIR WILL PENETRATE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 25
PERCENT AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. DURATIONS COULD
BE UP TO 7 HOURS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...SAVE
FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN 10 TO 15 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE DURATIONS
MAY REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ050-062-065-052300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0029.070407T1600Z-070407T2300Z/
PINELLAS-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
337 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON: IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...HUMIDITY WILL
BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 35 PERCENT WHILE 20 FOOT SUSTAINED WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10 MPH OR SO. THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT GUSTIER
WINDS MAY ARRIVE...AND A SHORT FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED.  

FRIDAY: ONE TO TWO HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND A WAVE OF ENERGY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST
ABOVE 20 MPH...AND SHORT FUSED RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

SATURDAY: EVEN DRIER AIR WILL PENETRATE INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 25 PERCENT
AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. DURATIONS COULD BE UP
TO 7 HOURS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...SAVE FOR
THOSE AREAS WITHIN 10 TO 15 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE DURATIONS MAY
REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY.


PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

BSG

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 052307
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
707 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...COOLER BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY...

.DRY AIR WILL EASE SOUTH ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE
TAMPA BAY AND LAKELAND AREA THIS EVENING. A SURGE OF COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND BE REINFORCED
ON SATURDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS FOR APRIL COVERS
THE ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE DRY AIR EACH DAY.

FLZ039-042-043-061130-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0043.000000T0000Z-070405T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0044.070406T1600Z-070406T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0029.070407T1600Z-070407T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-
707 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM
EDT FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY: HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT AROUND NOON...AND
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT INLAND...AND 25 TO 30 PERCENT
CLOSER TO THE COAST...BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE
UP TO 7 HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED
20 FOOT WINDS OF 10 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR SO
ESPECIALLY AROUND NOON WILL ACCOMPANY THE DRY AIR.

SATURDAY: SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UP TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY...BUT DEW POINTS WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30...ALLOWING HUMIDITY TO FALL TO NEAR 20
PERCENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ048-049-051-052-055>057-060-061-061130-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0044.070406T1600Z-070406T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0029.070407T1600Z-070407T2300Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
707 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

FRIDAY: HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT AROUND NOON IN
HERNANDO...PASCO...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...AND POLK COUNTIES.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY 2 PM IN DESOTO...
HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...EASTERN MANATEE...AND EASTERN SARASOTA
COUNTIES. READINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA...AND 30 TO 34
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTION. DURATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7
HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 4 TO 5 HOURS ELSEWHERE. EXCEPTIONS
WILL BE WITHIN 10 OR 15 MILES OF THE GULF COAST WHERE DURATION OF
CRITICAL HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HUMIDITY...20 FOOT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY.

SATURDAY: EVEN DRIER AIR WILL PENETRATE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR
25 PERCENT AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. DURATIONS
COULD BE UP TO 7 HOURS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE WARNING
AREA...SAVE FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN 10 TO 15 MILES OF THE COAST
WHERE DURATIONS MAY REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ050-062-065-061130-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0029.070407T1600Z-070407T2300Z/
PINELLAS-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
707 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

FRIDAY: ONE TO TWO HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND A WAVE OF
ENERGY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
WINDS MAY GUST ABOVE 20 MPH...AND SHORT FUSED RED FLAG WARNINGS
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

SATURDAY: EVEN DRIER AIR WILL PENETRATE INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 25 PERCENT
AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. DURATIONS COULD BE UP
TO 7 HOURS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...SAVE FOR
THOSE AREAS WITHIN 10 TO 15 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE DURATIONS
MAY REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

BSG

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
320 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF CAUSES A WEAK WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH SHORT WAVE APPEARS RATHER POTENT IN
W/V IMAGERY...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS IS CURRENTLY OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
ERRODE.  A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES WITH INCREASING LIFT...FAIR L/L
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SLOWLY SINKING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO GIVE
WAY.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT IS PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MUCH COOLER DRIER
AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AS A
CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.  SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH DEEP U/L TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY...BUT CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE TYPE
FLOW PATTERN WILL SEND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES/LOW PRESSURE AREAS OUR
WAY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL...SOME UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THEN A CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
AROUND 40 WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCATIONS OVER THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PENINSULA PROVIDES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ON SUNDAY
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NORTHERN
MEXICO AREAS WILL HELP TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
MODELS THIS MORNING ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE GULF ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY...THEN MOVING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/UKMET
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE UPPER FLOW I PLAN TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS FOR NOW.

IN ANY EVENT AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THICKEN ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...THEN
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS INCREASING INTO THE
40 TO 50% RANGE...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE
EXACT EVOLUTION AND TIMING PREFER TO CAP POPS AT 30% FOR NOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ON TUESDAY THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. PLEASANT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER
70S 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH. RAPID CHANGES TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TN/MS VALLEYS...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT GFS SHOWS A RAPID MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES SO EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION MODELS PROG A LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS RIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/PENINSULA AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET
PROVIDING INCREASING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL OF THIS
HAVE INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GRIDS AND WENT WITH LOW END
SCATTERED RANGE POPS (30%)POPS FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES AT THE
START OF LONG TERM WILL RUN SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN WILL
MODERATE BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEX TEMP
TRENDS CONTINUE QUITE COLD FOR SUNDAY MORNING (32 AT BROOKSVILLE)...
SO ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWN SOME...BUT STILL KEPT READINGS SOME 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE IN MOST LOCATIONS SEEING THAT IT IS APRIL.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA
15KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT SOME AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM DEVELOPING SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. OUTSIDE OF
THE SHOWER AREAS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL
LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LEVY...CITRUS...
AND SUMTER COUNTIES.  MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PINELLAS COUNTY.
MIN RH VALUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COUNTIES OF CHARLOTTE AND
LEE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  75  50  /  40  30   5   5
FMY  81  62  77  55  /  50  30  10   5
GIF  79  56  77  55  /  40  30   5   5
SRQ  76  59  73  52  /  40  30   5   5
BKV  76  47  74  39  /  40  30   5   5
SPG  77  61  72  55  /  40  30   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM FOR LEVY-CITRUS-
     SUMTER COUNTIES FOR LOW RH DURATIONS AND WIND.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY DUE TO LOW RH DURATIONS FOR LEVY-
     CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-
     SARASOTA-HARDEE-DESOTO-HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
510 AM EDT WED APR 4 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-042115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
510 AM EDT WED APR 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT FIRST OVER THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES AND THEN SOUTHWARD
AS THE BOUNDARY MIGRATES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING SCEC BY LATE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AS STATEMENTS
REGARDING MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPDATED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ALSO ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.