Red Flag Warning 38, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
100 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2007

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GULF OF MEXICO. NARROW BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS ROUNDING THE RIDGE BUT SKIES SHOULD START OUT
SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...TROF IN THE PACIFIC FORECAST TO TO
BECOME CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA/OR COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KICK OUT SMALL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO
TX...AND THAT WILL TILT STRONG RIDGE EASTWARD. REGARDLESS...MORE
OF THE SAME TYPE OF WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT THREE DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF AND FL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE AXIS SLIDES OVER FL
IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-
WEST. THE RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF FL AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG 30 NORTH LATITUDE RIDGING BACK WEST TO GA/FA WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS RIDGE IS REINFORCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA AND DOWN THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD FRI. THIS REINFORCED N-S RIDGE THEN SHIFTS OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC SAT...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE AREA...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF DRY AND STABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EASTERLY
AND THEN SE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST. THE APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND COULD
SUGGEST SOME LOW ODDS OF RAINFALL BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ZONES DRY
AND JUST 10 PERCENT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.MARINE...EVENING WIND SURGE OF PAST FEW NIGHTS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD...AND THIS WILL KEEP WAVES UP TO 3-5 FT
20+ MILES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED
20-60NM OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE THIS FOR DAY SHIFT. WINDS
SLACKEN AND WAVES CALM A BIT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH DISPERSIONS AND RH 30-35% EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON SO RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. RH RECOVERS TO
AROUND 40% MONDAY SO NO WATCH NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  62  83  63 /   0   0   5   5
FMY  85  61  87  65 /   0   0   5   5
GIF  84  62  84  63 /   0   0   5   5
SRQ  83  61  83  63 /   0   0   5   5
BKV  85  56  84  58 /   0   0   5   5
SPG  80  66  83  67 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RKR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
502 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-242115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
502 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...MARINE HAZARDS...

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
IN THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS PLANNING TO TRAVEL OFFSHORE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...

AT THIS TIME...SEEMS THAT THE GREATEST RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER LEVY...CITRUS AND SUMTER COUNTIES
WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EVERYWHERE
AND CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISE WHEN PERFORMING ACTIVITIES THAT
MAY IGNITE FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON SUNDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP INTO CRITICAL
LEVELS WHICH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK
FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

REYNES