Red Flag Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
941 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER GREAT DAY UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FRESH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING THROUGH THE 60S.

FOR USERS OF OUR SOUNDINGS: PLEASE NOTE THAT UPPER AIR DATA WILL
NOT BE AVAILABLE OFFICIALLY FOR SITE KTBW UNTIL 12Z/MARCH
26TH...AS WE ARE REPLACING OUR NOW OBSOLETE SYSTEM WITH A GPS-BASED
RADIOSONDE AND TELEMETRY SYSTEM. YOU MAY SEE A FEW TEST FLIGHT
MESSAGES LATER THIS WEEK...BUT RELIABILITY MAY BE SUSPECT WHILE
THE SYSTEM IS CALIBRATED. FOR FULL DETAILS ON THE RADIOSONDE
REPLACEMENT PROGRAM...PLEASE SEE

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RRS

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AS INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH FORCED THE ISSUE IS
LARGELY GONE FOR NOW. STILL...FLOW PATTERN FAVORS SCATTERED TO
BRIEFLY BROKEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS PERHAPS SPREADING TO
STRATOCUMULUS TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TRACK GIVEN
THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DECENT FLOW THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD ALLOW PULSE
GUSTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...SO EXPECT THE FRESH BREEZES TO TAKE
AN EDGE OFF THE WARM SUNSHINE BUT STILL BE QUITE NICE. NO CHANGES
PLANNED TO PACKAGE. ENJOY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE AS DEW POINTS ONLY DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LAVDAS DISPERSION WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL
VALUES (75)...ENOUGH TO A BIT MORE DANGER FOR SPREADING FOR ANY
FIRES THAT EXIST. NO RED FLAG BUT GIVEN THE WINDS NOT THE BEST DAY
TO BURN EITHER. MAY ADD CAUTIONARY WORDING TO THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE DEPENDING ON WIND TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS RAMP UP FROM 10 KNOTS NEARSHORE TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS
BEYOND 20 NM OUT...AND NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF/MIDDLE GROUNDS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A DECREASE OF
VALUES BELOW CAUTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL LET CAUTION
EXPIRE...BEFORE REHOISTING THIS EVENING. WILL GET A BETTER LOOK
FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY IN THE 20-60 NM LEGS WITH THE 12Z MODELS
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
CAUTION AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR VSBY & CIG THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS VEER AND PICK
UP SLIGHTLY DURING MID-LATE MORNING. TWB ROUTE 116 COULD SEE A SHRA
OR TWO NEAR THE KMIA END.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT.
&&

SHORT TERM UPDATE...88/BSG
AVIATION UPDATE...09/RKR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
450 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-211400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
450 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUBSIDE SOME TODAY THEN INCREASE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AGAIN TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
HEADING MORE THAN A FEW MILES OUT TONIGHT SHOULD USE CAUTION AND
BE PREPARED FOR CHOPPY SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING EACH NIGHT FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRC