Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2007
Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at Mar 17, 2007, 5:08 AM EDT for 6 counties in Florida. It took effect at Mar 18, 2007, 11:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 17, 2007, 5:08 AM EDT (09:08 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 18, 2007, 11:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 18, 2007, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Counties DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sumter County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 49 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 830 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 0 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS82 KTBW 170908 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 508 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 ...DRY AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO FIRE DANGER RISK TODAY AND SUNDAY... .VERY DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONT WILL RESULT IN LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT TODAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH... FURTHER ENHANCING THE FIRE DANGER TODAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS ON SUNDAY BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-180000- /O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0023.070318T1500Z-070318T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0033.070318T1500Z-070318T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0032.070317T1500Z-070317T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 508 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ON SUNDAY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING 5 TO 7 HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 22 PERCENT IN INTERIOR COUNTIES. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE DRY AIR AS WINDS COME IN OFF THE GULF...BUT EVEN THERE WE EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS WINDS AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT MAY START. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. $$
2 follow-up statements
000 WWUS82 KTBW 180940 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 540 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007 ...DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO FIRE DANGER RISK TODAY AND MONDAY... .HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY...WITH FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-055>057-060>062-065-190015- /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0024.070319T1600Z-070320T0000Z/ /O.EXT.KTBW.FW.W.0033.070318T1500Z-070319T0000Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE- HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 540 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING THAT IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING 5 TO 6 HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 20 PERCENT IN INTERIOR COUNTIES. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT MAY START. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ050-190000- /O.EXT.KTBW.FW.W.0033.070318T1500Z-070319T0000Z/ PINELLAS- 540 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING 4 TO 5 HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT MAY START. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$
000 WWUS82 KTBW 181742 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 142 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007 ...DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO FIRE DANGER RISK TODAY AND MONDAY... .HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND ALSO MONDAY IN THE WARNED AREAS. FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-055>057-060>062-065-190000- /O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0024.070319T1600Z-070320T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0034.070319T1600Z-070320T0000Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-070319T0000Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE- HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 142 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FELL BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 20 PERCENT IN INTERIOR COUNTIES. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT MAY START. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. $$ FLZ050-190000- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-070319T0000Z/ PINELLAS- 142 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Mar 17, 3:55 AM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 3:55 AM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION SETTING UP A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER DRIER AIR TODAY AND BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
FROM NORTHEAST SUNDAY TO EAST ON MONDAY BEGINNING THE MODERATING
TREND. OVERALL EXPECT FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO TYPICAL DAYTIME
HEATING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH INVERSION AROUND 5000 TO 6000
FEET...SHOULD GIVE US PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON WITH SHALLOW
CUMULUS...AND AT NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. ATMOSPHERE HOWEVER
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO LOOKS LIKE THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN-FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THE ABOVE SCENARIOS MAY BE DURING WEDNESDAY...AS GFS SHOWS AN AREA
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE EAST...WHICH MAY
SUPPORT DEEPER AND THICKER CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH
MINIMAL SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST NEXT 24 HRS WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT THIS MORNING...GIVING US VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. REGARDING
WINDS...EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTS OF 18-23 KT LATER THIS MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ALL TAF SITES.
THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AT OR BELOW 11 KNOTS LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO
THIS AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER
TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND THEN EASTERLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH AFTERNOONS...ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE CONTINUED FOR TODAY AND ADDED FOR SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...BUT STILL MAY SEE 1 TO 3
HOURS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 44 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 72 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 68 45 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 68 46 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 65 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 67 51 69 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60
NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NPHazardous weather outlook, Mar 17, 5:01 AM EDT, 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 501 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-171415- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 501 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...COASTAL HAZARDS AND RIP CURRENTS... GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. BEACH GOERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RIP CURRENTS... AND CONSIDER STAYING OUT OF THE WATER TODAY. ...WIND AND SEA IMPACT... WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS RANGING FROM AROUND 5 FEET NEAR SHORE UP TO 8 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT. BOATERS SHOULD CONSIDER POSTPONING WATER PLANS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY. ...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT... GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION TODAY CREATING HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY CONTINUING THE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. PRC
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2007Every red flag warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.