Red Flag Warning 32, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 170908
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
508 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007

...DRY AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO FIRE DANGER RISK
TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.VERY DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONT WILL RESULT IN LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT TODAY AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...
FURTHER ENHANCING THE FIRE DANGER TODAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS
ON SUNDAY BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW 35 PERCENT
FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-180000-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0023.070318T1500Z-070318T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0033.070318T1500Z-070318T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0032.070317T1500Z-070317T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
508 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT ON SUNDAY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR SUNDAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING 5 TO 7 HOURS OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
22 PERCENT IN INTERIOR COUNTIES. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE
SOME RELIEF FROM THE DRY AIR AS WINDS COME IN OFF THE GULF...BUT
EVEN THERE WE EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
AS WINDS AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ON
SUNDAY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT MAY START.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1220 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A VENICE
TO FROSTPROOF LINE AND 10 MILES EAST OF THE COAST...

SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN LOW 80S HAVE HELPED INITIATE CONVECTION
NORTHEAST OF PUNTA GORDA AHEAD OF LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
TAMPA BAY TO LAKELAND REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES MEANS CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. SARASOTA AIRPORT JUST
CAME IN WITH A 37 KT WIND FROM THE WEST FROM ONE OF THE STORMS.
ALSO...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR FLAGLER A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR AGO
SO CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY IN OUR AREA.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...COLD FRONT TO PUSH RAIN SOUTH OF
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
AIR PUSH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE MAY
COMPLICATE CLOUD FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. MAV TEMPS SEEM COOL FOR
MID MARCH SUNSHINE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS 2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN 06Z MAV.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MON NIGHT TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS CAUSING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN SITES THROUGH 1-2PM. A FEW PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND THESE
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONTAL CONVECTION TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY ENDING 22-00Z. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE
CONVECTION...AND MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA OUT AND ALLOW
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. SEAS OFFSHORE TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET.
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND WINDS OVER 15 MPH. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS OF HUMIDITY LESS THAN 35
PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  66  45  69 /   5   5  10  10
FMY  59  72  48  73 /  20   5  10  10
GIF  52  69  44  70 /   5   5  10  10
SRQ  56  68  46  69 /   5   5  10  10
BKV  49  64  37  70 /   5   5  10  10
SPG  59  66  51  66 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALL TBW
COUNTIES.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALL TBW
COUNTIES.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY BONITA BEACH TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...NOAH
LONG TERM....COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
550 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-162200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
550 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.

...COASTAL HAZARDS AND RIP CURRENTS...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGH TIDES ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
BEACH GOERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RIP CURRENTS...AND SHOULD CONSIDER
STAYING OUT OF THE WATER TODAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FEET. BOATERS SHOULD
CONSIDERING POSTPONING WATER PLANS UNTIL THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
PASSES AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

A DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS PERSIST OVER
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

NP