Red Flag Warning 27, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
359 AM EST THU MAR 8 2007

.UPDATE...WATCHING DEW POINTS INCH DOWNWARD EVEN NEAR THE
COAST...NOW UP TO 9 DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST FROM THE 18Z AND
12Z GUIDANCE YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...HAVE ADJUSTED RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL BUT PINELLAS COUNTY (SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
SECTION AT BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION). THIS ALSO MATCHES UP BETTER WITH
GRIDDED DATA. RED FLAG WARNING PRODUCT OUT SHORTLY...

/BSG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST THU MAR 8 2007/

SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...IT JUST DOESNT GET MUCH BETTER.
WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET...MORE SUNNY MORNINGS/CLEAR
OVERNIGHTS PUNCTUATED BY DEVELOPING HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EACH
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO STRATOCUMULUS...AND
PERHAPS BECOME BROKEN...EACH EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND CLIMB SLOWLY ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...WITH
THE NAM ODDLY DEVELOPING MOISTURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA
TO THE WEST OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH ITSELF DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK 500 MB SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BELIEVE THE
RESPONSE IN DEEP LAYER LIFTING ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS FAR
OVERDONE GIVEN ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...THE ONLY IMPACT OF ANY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SPREADING FLAT STRATOCUMULUS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

IN SHORT...LOOKS LIKE A GREAT END TO THE WEEK AND START TO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER SOLUTION
FOR THE LONG RANGE BY THE GFS. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE SOLUTION
ACTUALLY MATCHES CLOSER TO WHAT BOTH THE DGEX AND ECMWF HAVE. PERIOD
BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGING DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. WEAK EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP
POPS LOWER...SO HAVE GONE TO SILENT 10 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY.

THE NEW MODELS SOLUTION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK HAS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIVING DOWN INTO MISSOURI. THIS LOW WOULD SPAWN A
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD COME UP AGAINST THE STRONG HIGH OFF THE EAST
COAST. BY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM WOULD MOVE INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THEN OVER NORTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SAME LOW WAS
FORECAST TO BE OVER MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD BY YESTERDAYS MODELS.
GIVEN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AM FORCED TO PUT IN AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT THAT
COULD DROP OVER THE REGION IF THE UPPER LOW MOVES RIGHT OVER
US...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH IF THIS SCENARIO DOES START TO PLAY OUT.

FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL HUMIDITY LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE
SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH WELL INLAND AND SAVE SOME
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN WEVE PUSHED MODEL GUIDANCE
DEW POINTS DOWN SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THATS ON
TOP OF ALREADY SLIGHTLY LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES BASED ON AN INFLUX
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TODAY. THUS...AM EXPECTING HUMIDITY TO
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 27 AND 32 PERCENT ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.
THUS...RED FLAG WARNINGS FLYING FOR ALL BUT PINELLAS SARASOTA AND
LEE COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE THESE COUNTIES ARE CLOSEST TO THE
COAST AND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY CUT DURATIONS EVEN IN
EASTERN MOST SARASOTA AND PROBABLY LEE BEFORE THEY REACH 4 HOURS.

THAT SAID...WERE CLOSELY WATCHING NORTHEAST FLOW AND SLIGTLY
FALLING DEW POINTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ALL AREAS...AND WE MAY
TWEAK GRIDS TO GRAB EACH OF THESE COUNTIES INTO THE FINAL WARNING
BEFORE 6 AM.

AS FOR FRIDAY...WAS ORIGINALLY GOING TO HOIST ANOTHER WATCH FOR AT
LEAST THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
JUST ENOUGH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE SURFACE TO IMPORT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE HELD OFF...FOR NOW. STILL...GRIDS ARE
ADVERTISING UP TO 4 HOURS IN SPOTS BELOW 35 PERCENT...AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY EXCEPT
WEDNESDAY...WHEN LOWER THICKNESSES MAY ALLOW READINGS TO RETURN TO
AROUND NORMAL.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MARINE...LIGHT GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS (3 FEET
OR LESS) THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
OVER AND NORTH OF THE PENINSULA. BY MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD A DEVELOPING 500 MB VORTEX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WOULD ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE A
LITTLE...BUT GIVEN THAT CAUSATIVE EVENT IS NOT EVEN SHOWING ON
SATELLITE WILL TAKE THIS SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT...AS
DESPITE ALL LONG RANGE MODELS KEYING ON SOME TYPE OF SYSTEM DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...TIMING...INTENSITY AND LOCATION ARE TOO
UNCERTAIN TO CONSIDER RAMPING UP WINDS AND SEAS JUST YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  58  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  81  58  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  80  56  81  59 /   0   0   5   5
SRQ  76  56  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  79  47  80  54 /   0   0   5   5
SPG  76  61  77  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
     HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/UPDATE...88/BSG
LONG TERM/AVIATION...55/RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
415 AM EST WED MAR 7 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-071530-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
415 AM EST WED MAR 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FAIR PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILD FIRE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO OR JUST BELOW 30 PERCENT IN MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR
BURNING OF ANY KIND IS GENERALLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY DRY GROUND WITH THE VERY LOW
HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRY CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTH TO THE
NATURE COAST. FAIR AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL ALLOW FAIRLY LOW HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BSG