Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 071900
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EST WED MAR 7 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING...LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE FOUR OR
MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THURSDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-080700-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-070308T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0020.070308T1800Z-070309T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
200 PM EST WED MAR 7 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING...BUT SHOULD STILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST.

DESPITE A SLOW MOISTENING TREND...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL TO THE LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ055>057-060>062-065-080000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-070308T0000Z/
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
200 PM EST WED MAR 7 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOME...BUT SHOULD STILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
223 AM EST WED MAR 7 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...JUST ANOTHER WEEK IN PARADISE AS
GREAT WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH A SLOW FALL IN 500
MB HEIGHTS ON CONTINUED FLAT WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SPELL
FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT A SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS LAND TEMPERATURES WARM TOWARD 80 WHILE THE
GULF REMAINS IN THE COOL-ISH 60S. AS FOR CLOUDS...EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS EACH DAY...WITH HIGH-BASED LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STRATOCUMULUS PERHAPS BECOMING BRIEFLY BROKEN AT
SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID EVENING EACH NIGHT. ENJOY

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED ON EAST
COAST AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS BY FAIRLY UNNOTICED SATURDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL COME DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BREAK OFF INTO A CUTOFF
LOW OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY. THUS NOT EXPECTING A CHANGE IN OUR
FORECAST EITHER DAY. AS MODELS ARE STILL CHANGING DAY TO DAY...WILL
KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DO NOT WANT TO
FLIP FLOP BETWEEN SHOWERS AND NO SHOWERS. FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAN
TOWARDS CLIMO...DAY 7...AND DROP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST SO
THAT WE DONT HAVE 3 DAYS IN A ROW OF RAIN CHANCES IN WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BASES SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000 FEET. THUS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. SLIGHT
SEAS (3 FEET OR LESS) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINS THE INCREASINGLY CRITICAL ISSUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. WARMING MARCH SUNSHINE AND IMPRESSIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS (TWO DAYS WITH HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15% AT MANY
LOCATIONS) ARE CONTINUING TO RAMP UP THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT
INDEX (KBDI)...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. WHILE THERE IS RELATIVE RELIEF FOR
THE REST THE WEEK IN HIGHER DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY...THESE VALUES
WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANOTHER RED
FLAG DAY AS VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

NAM-12 SOUNDINGS AND 2 METER DEW POINTS SUGGEST HUMIDITY AS LOW AS
25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SEE NO REASON TO BUCK
THE TREND AS GFS WAS WOEFULLY HIGH ON AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MAINTAINING
THE LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND LIKELY INTO THE
CENTRAL ZONES. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW THE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY/LAKELAND...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RESOLVE THE ISSUE LATER TODAY AND CERTAINLY TONIGHT.

FRIDAY COULD ALSO PROVIDE LOCALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITY AS THURSDAYS
AIR MASS CHANGES LITTLE. THANKFULLY...DISPERSION WILL REMAIN IN
CHECK THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...HAVE HOISTED WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TODAY...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON THURSDAY FROM
HILLBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES NORTH. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  77  56 /   0   5   5   5
FMY  79  56  80  56 /   0   5   5   5
GIF  78  54  79  54 /   0   5   5   5
SRQ  77  55  76  55 /   0   5   5   5
BKV  78  45  78  45 /   0   5   5   5
SPG  74  59  76  59 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...88/BSG
LONG TERM/AVIATION...55/RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
410 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-061500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
410 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FAIR PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILD FIRE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS DISCOURAGED DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY DRY GROUND WITH THE VERY LOW
HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DRY CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTH TO
THE NATURE COAST. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY

AND CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE.

BSG