Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2007
Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at Feb 28, 2007, 10:21 AM EST for Sumter County, Florida. It took effect at Feb 28, 2007, 11:00 AM EST. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 28, 2007, 10:21 AM EST (15:21 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 28, 2007, 11:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 28, 2007, 6:00 PM EST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
County Sumter County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2267 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 87 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS82 KTBW 281521 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1021 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LEVY COUNTY FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT DURING THIS AFTERNOON... .A DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. FLZ039-282300- /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0022.070228T1600Z-070228T2300Z/ LEVY- 1021 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS OVER LEVY COUNTY COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES (25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF LEVY COUNTY. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RESIDENTS OF LEVY COUNTY SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE WITH ANY OUTDOOR OPEN FLAMES THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ JCM
1 follow-up statement
000 WWUS82 KTBW 281748 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1248 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH AND EAST TO NOW INCLUDE CITRUS...SUMTER AND HERNANDO COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... .A DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WARNED AREAS LISTED ABOVE. FLZ042-043-048-282300- /O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-070228T2300Z/ CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO- 1248 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES (25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) ARE EXPECTED OVER SUMTER COUNTY AS WELL AS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CITRUS AND HERNANDO COUNTIES. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE WITH ANY OUTDOOR OPEN FLAMES THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-282300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-070228T2300Z/ LEVY- 1248 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS OVER LEVY COUNTY COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES (25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF LEVY COUNTY. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE WITH ANY OUTDOOR OPEN FLAMES THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ JCM
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 28, 10:14 AM EST, 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 10:14 AM EST, 7 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1014 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007
.UPDATE...CROSS CITYS DEWPOINT AT 15Z WAS 45...AND THE FAWN SITE AT
BRONSON HAD 47. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP TO AROUND 80
UP IN LEVY COUNTY...WHICH EVEN WITH NONE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING
DOWN SHOULD MAKE FOR 4 HOUR DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITIES COULD GO MUCH LOWER AS
SOME OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN...SO COULD SEE RH VALUES
INTO THE 20S. THUS WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING EFFECTIVE AT 16Z
AND RUNNING TIL 23Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007/
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS RIDGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL IDENTIFIABLE
BY DEWPOINT READINGS 10 TO 15 DEGREES DRIER OVER NORTH FLORIDA
THAN OVER OUR CWA. ALOFT REGION IS IN A ZONAL FLOW AND IN BETWEEN
TWO JET STREAKS.
DISCUSSION...NICE AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION. STILL SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE OLD FRONT. HIGHEST CLOUD COVER
IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG LINE OF BEST CONVERGENCE. BOTH GFS AND
NAM KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND THIS FORECAST MAY VERIFY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEA
BREEZE ACTING UPON THE MOISTURE. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS FOR
NOW...A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE STABILITY INDICATED
BY THE 12Z SOUNDING. FOR THE SAME REASON LIKE MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH CALLS FOR WARMER READINGS THAN THE MAV.
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE MET AND WILL KEEP VALUES AS IS.
MORNING UPDATE WILL REMOVE PATCHY FOG AND WILL WAIT TILL ALL
VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP TO SEND OUT THE CHANGE.
AVIATION...LINGERING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PRODUCING MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL SITES
BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS IN
CURRENT FORECAST. AS IN ZONE FORECAST...ONLY CHANGE IN THE 1030
PACKAGE WILL BE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING.
FIRE WEATHER...12Z SOUNDING CAME IN DRY ABOVE THE FOG LAYER...900
FEET. PREVIOUS FORECAST WENT WITH THE MET GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS
THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOWER VALUE...AND WE MAY STILL GET BELOW
THAT. WILL MONITOR POINTS UP NORTH ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEWPOINT
GRADIENT UP THERE. LEVY COUNTY IS MARGINAL FOR DURATIONS AT RED
FLAG LEVELS. IF THEY GO DOWN BEFORE NOON...WELL HAVE TO ISSUE A
SHORT-FUSED WARNING.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
UPDATES...RJS/JCMHazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 5:45 AM EST, 4 hours 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 545 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-281430- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 545 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 5 MILES THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE HALF MILE. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2007Every red flag warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.