Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 221958
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
258 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL AND NORTH 
FLORIDA FOR LOW HUMIDITY WITH DURATIONS AND WINDS...
...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY FOR LOW HUMIDITY WITH DURATIONS...

.HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE A
DRY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THAT DRY AIR
HAS ALREADY FILTERED INTO THE REGION TODAY...BUT HAS STAYED INLAND
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST.

FLZ039-043-052-057-222300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0020.070222T1958Z-070222T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0019.070223T1600Z-070224T0000Z/
LEVY-SUMTER-POLK-HIGHLANDS-
258 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

DRY AIR HAS ALREADY MADE IT INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S...AND
COMBINE WITH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL BE AT ITS DRIEST FRIDAY
WITH RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 7 PM.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ042-048>051-055-056-060>062-065-222300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0019.070223T1600Z-070224T0000Z/
CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-HARDEE-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
258 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL BE AT ITS DRIEST FRIDAY
WITH RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS ACROSS
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 7 PM.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24
HOURS.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 230037
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
737 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY FOR LOW HUMIDITY WITH DURATIONS...

.HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE A
DRY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. 

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-240000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0019.070223T1600Z-070224T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
737 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35
PERCENT...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL BE AT ITS DRIEST FRIDAY
WITH RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS ACROSS
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 7 PM.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
124 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF
IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST...WITH WEST AND WNW FLOW ALOFT THE CWA.
A SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS RIDGING SOUTH...BRIDGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND THE SE
STATES...TO A WEAKER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AN OLD
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH WITH LITTLE IDENTITY LESS IS NOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SAT)...THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...REACHING
FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO RIDGE OVER THE GULF...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
NORTH OF FL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TODAY. THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE EAST GULF TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS NORTH FL FRI
WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY. THEN THE HIGH REACHES THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO NE...EAST AND THEN SE AS THE HIGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH
WITH A MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR/SUNNY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY UNTIL SAT WHEN SE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE LOW
CLOUDS SOME. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE BY SAT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING...INCREASING L/L MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.   A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.  THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY WITH RETURN
SOUTHEAST FLOW ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15KT OR LESS AS THE HIGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH
FRI. BUT ONCE THE CENTER REACHES THE SE COAST AND THEN THE ATLANTIC
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO SCEC SPEEDS LATE FRI
INTO SUN. WINDS WILL THEN DROP OFF AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL SEE SOME RH BELOW 35%
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONLY WITH DURATIONS OF 3 HOURS OR LESS. THIS IS
THANKS IN PART TO A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF.
HOWEVER FRI WILL BE A DIFFERENT MATTERED WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
WHERE ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS WILL MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. WILL
UPDATE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE NORTHERN
PINELLAS AND INLAND SARASTOA...CHARLOOTE...AND LEE COUNTIES WITH
THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  52  75  54  77 /   0   0   5   5
FMY  52  80  54  81 /   0   0   5   5
GIF  51  77  53  79 /   0   0   5   5
SRQ  52  75  52  78 /   0   0   5   5
BKV  43  75  43  78 /   0   0   5   5
SPG  56  73  57  77 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...RKR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-221600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
500 AM EST THU FEB 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARD TO MOTORISTS: PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. SOME OF THE MORE FOG
PRONE AREAS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND
MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES UNTIL THE FOG
BURNS OFF THIS MORNING.

FIRE DANGER: DRY AIR IS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
HIGHLANDS...POLK AND SUMTER COUNTIES. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
EARLY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FIRE DANGER: RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES WILL NOT BE
AS DRY...BUT MAY STILL APPROACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT LEE AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES.

MARINE: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REACH UP TO 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. MARINERS
SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS CLOSELY AS CAUTION STATEMENTS OR
ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
HOW STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.