Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 202010
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
310 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE LINGERING DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

FLZ056-061-202115-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-070221T0000Z/
HARDEE-DE SOTO-
310 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. 

DEWPOINTS IN HARDEE AND DE SOTO COUNTIES HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THEY MAY STILL FALL BEFORE THE
END OF THE AFTERNOON...DURATIONS OF HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 4 HOURS.


$$

FLZ039-042-048-210000-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-070221T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-
310 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

DRY AIR IS LINGERING OVER THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOUR OR
MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPIDLY
SPREADING WILD FIRES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ043-052-057-210000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-070221T0000Z/
SUMTER-POLK-HIGHLANDS-
310 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

DRY AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE PENINSULA TODAY. FOUR OR MORE HOURS
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILD FIRES
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
329 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE
FROSTY MORNINGS...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO AS A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE TAKES SHAPE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAD BEEN PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...RESULTING IN A DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS WAS
DRAGGING COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA AND DROPPING IT RIGHT ON OUR
DOORSTEP. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY...EFFECTIVELY
SHUNTING THE COLD AIR TO OUR EAST.

THAT SAID...WE DO HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE AIR BEHIND IT IS NOT VERY
COLD...AND WE WONT SEE VERY MUCH MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY GETS HERE. THAT MEANS MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE NATURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE...ALTHOUGH COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE HELD TO THE 60S.

TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES WARMER OVER THE
INTERIOR THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD NEAR 50 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SOME UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS
PRECEDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. I WILL KEEP LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTY
COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TREND UP TO ALMOST
80 DEGREES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE SUN OCCURS.

WELL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.

I TRIMMED MAX TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT FOR THURSDAY BASED ON THE
MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS THAT WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. EVEN STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S
FAR NORTH TO NEAR 80 FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIRMASS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ON SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...AND SUBSEQUENT SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING
ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY LATE SUNDAY THE NEXT SFC FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E
AND NE ACROSS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...THEN SHIFTING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. APPEARS NOW
THAT THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY 00Z TUE INSTEAD OF
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA PER EARLIER MODEL RUNS. TO
SUMMARIZE...WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE MAY
SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CU AND SOME CIRRUS...BUT FLT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP INTO THE MID 20S
OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CRITICAL RH DURATIONS OF 4
TO 6 HOURS. WE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SUMTER...POLK...
HIGHLANDS...HARDEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES.

SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE BORDERLINE RH CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  57  75  59 /   0   5  10  10
FMY  76  56  79  59 /   0   5  10  10
GIF  74  54  77  57 /   0   5  10  10
SRQ  72  54  74  59 /   0   5  10  10
BKV  73  48  76  51 /   0  10  20  10
SPG  70  58  74  60 /   0   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PETRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
528 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048-191600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
528 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COLD: TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN
THE MIDDLE 20S. PEOPLE OUT AND ABOUT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
CHILDREN WAITING AT BUS STOPS...SHOULD DRESS WARMLY.

FIRE DANGER: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILD FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SPREADING WILD FIRES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FLZ049>051-055-060-191600-
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
528 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COLD: TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF AROUND FREEZING THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. PEOPLE OUT AND ABOUT THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY CHILDREN WAITING AT BUS STOPS...SHOULD DRESS WARMLY.

FIRE DANGER: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILD FIRES.

SURF AND RIP CURRENTS: HAZARDOUS SURF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASING RISKS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SPREADING WILD FIRES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FLZ052-056-057-061-191600-
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
528 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COLD: TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF AROUND FREEZING THIS MORNING
IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. PEOPLE OUT AND ABOUT THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CHILDREN WAITING AT BUS STOPS...SHOULD DRESS
WARMLY.

FIRE DANGER: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILD FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SPREADING WILD FIRES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FLZ062-065-191600-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
528 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COLD: TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. PEOPLE OUT
AND ABOUT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CHILDREN WAITING AT BUS
STOPS...SHOULD DRESS WARMLY.

FIRE DANGER: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILD FIRES.

SURF AND RIP CURRENTS: HAZARDOUS SURF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASING RISKS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.