Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 082100
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
400 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...

.HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...WITH THE LOWEST HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

FLZ043-051-055-060-062-090000-
/O.EXB.KTBW.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-070209T0000Z/
SUMTER-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-
400 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S HAS CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT. THE WARNED AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED 
1 TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24
HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS
HEADING OUT THIS MORNING.

$$

FLZ052-056-057-061-090000-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-070209T0000Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
400 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF 
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S HAS CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT. THE WARNED AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED 
1 TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING .

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS
HEADING OUT THIS MORNING.

$$

PRC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EST THU FEB 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH OFF THE EAST U.S. COAST...FROM A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...IS PRODUCING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ABOVE THE AREA. A
STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THERE...WITH AN AXIS FROM THE NE GULF TO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SAT)...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL LATE FRI OR
EARLY SAT WHEN THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES WITH A TAD MORE WNW FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE
AXIS RE-LOCATES TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TONIGHT AS THE
FORMERLY STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS A SOUTHWARD TREK. THE FRONT WILL
EASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT WITH ONLY SUBTLE
EFFECTS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY ALTHOUGH GRIDS WILL REFLECT A
SILENT 10 POP. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST DURING SAT TAPS
SOME COOLER AIR WITH READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...QUIET WEATHER BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PERCOLATE SOME AS
THE WEEK GOES ON.  AFTER ALL...WELL BE HEADED INTO MID FEBRUARY
WITH A FAIRLY FAST AND GENERALLY FLAT FLOW ALOFT...AND ANY BUCKLING
IN THAT FLOW CAN BRING RAPIDLY CHANGING AIR MASSES AND SHARPENING
MOISTURE BOUNDARIES. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TRYING
TO TIME ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...WHICH CAN BE AWFULLY DIFFICULT
BEYOND DAY 5.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAY WILL START PLEASANTLY COOL WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE NEGATES THE
SLIGHT LOW LEVEL COOLING NOTED AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  AS HIGH SHOOTS INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY...A COOL MORNING
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WARM AFTERNOON WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
DEW POINTS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THEN THE SOUTH.

A SHORT WAVE RACING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
RACE OFF THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.  BECAUSE THE FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO EAST...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE LOSES ITS
PUNCH BEFORE REACHING MOST OF THE PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD IMPORT JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH THIRD OF THE PENINSULA TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST HAVE PLACED
HIGHEST CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THAT COULD EASILY BE
ADJUSTED 6 HOURS EARLIER OR LATER AS HOPEFULLY MORE CONSISTENCY
DEVELOPS IN THE MODELS.  RIGHT NOW...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE RAIN-FREE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TUESDAY...AND HUMIDITY WILL BECOME A
BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT DROP OFF
IN HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN PLEASANT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCAL MVFR FOG NEAR BUT NOT
NECESSARILY AT EACH TERMINAL...EXPECT PLENTY OF VFR SUNSHINE WITH
THE LAST OF THE CIRRUS SCOOTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS BENIGN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS OF
10KTS OR LESS. WINDS DO PICK UP TO THE 10-15KT RANGE MON IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER BUT MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG FOR THE FOUR SOUTHERN MOST INTERIOR
COUNTIES WHERE DRIER AIR AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 HOURS OR MORE. AFTER TODAY...A SLOW AND
SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE ANY WATCH/WARNING
HEADLINES. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED LOCATIONS MAINLY INLAND MAY SEE RH
NEAR RED FLAG LEVELS BUT ONLY BRIEFLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  52  73  55 /   5   5  10   5
FMY  78  54  77  56 /  10   5  10   5
GIF  74  53  74  52 /   5   5  10   5
SRQ  72  52  72  57 /   5   5  10   5
BKV  73  41  73  45 /   5   5  10   5
SPG  71  57  71  57 /   5   5  10   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...09/RKR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...88/BSG