Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
137 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND IS RIDGING EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AS
JET THAT HAD BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAS
CLEARED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS A DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MENTIONED
YESTERDAY AS HAVING AN EFFECT ON THURSDAYS WEATHER HAS WEAKENED
FURTHER AND HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TO SILENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AS WELL AS LOWERED SKY COVER GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS DRY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH IT WILL BASICALLY MAINTAIN READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL STAY THERE BECAUSE OF THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. LOCAL FOG TOOLS AND LOCAL WRF NOT
AGREEING WITH GUIDANCE AND FEEL THAT AREA WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG FOR
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. A VERY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS WITH AN ONSHORE SEA
BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB TO SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

DURING MONDAY THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL/GA BORDERS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE SCOOTING
EAST ACROSS THE SERN GULF/SOUTHERN PENINSULA MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MY EXTREME NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN MOST ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FAR NORTH...AND UPPER 70S TO 80
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THIS HAVE DEPICTED LOW END SCATTERED RANGE
POPS (30%) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE QUITE
WARM WITH READINGS RUNNING SOME 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIKELY STALL
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOME PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW. ADEQUATE MOISTURE...AND LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SEEING IT IS DAY 6 AND 7 WILL CAP
POPS AT 30% FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT MODELS SHOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BENIGN WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER TODAYS RED FLAG WARNING IT LOOKS LIKE WELL
BE ABLE TO STEER CLEAR OF WATCH/WARNING HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAY STILL GET DOWN TO AROUND 35 PERCENT HUMIDITIES FOR
1 TO 3 HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH...AND WILL HEADLINE THIS IN FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  51  73  52  73 /   0   5   5  10
FMY  54  78  54  77 /   0  10   5  10
GIF  50  74  53  74 /   0   5   5  10
SRQ  49  72  52  72 /   0   5   5  10
BKV  38  73  41  73 /   0   5   5  10
SPG  55  71  57  71 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
347 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-071500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
347 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS
THAN 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.