Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 091614
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1114 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY IS BEING FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FOR TODAY. RH VALUES ACROSS OF THE
AREA ARE CURRENTLY AT RED FLAG LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO GO AS
LOW AS 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

FLZ050-092300-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070109T2300Z/
PINELLAS-
1114 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TODAY. FOUR OR
MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...NORTH 
WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH AND GUSTY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-092300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070109T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0002.070110T1600Z-070110T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
1114 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TODAY. FOUR OR
MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...NORTH 
WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH AND GUSTY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ051-052-055>057-060>062-065-092300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070109T2300Z/
HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1114 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TODAY. FOUR OR
MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...NORTH 
WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH AND GUSTY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
122 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO FINALLY
ARRIVE OVERNIGHT THRU THU AM.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWING NARROW CLOUD SHIELD AND BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING DOWN THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ELONGATED
STRONG VORT LOBE TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY SE OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH DRY UPPER WNW FLOW FOR TUE-WED. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES FOR ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ROCKIES TO TX BEGINNING TO
FILTER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING-TUE. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT FROM N TO S AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 30 N TO THE MID 40 OVER INTERIOR BAY AREA AND
AROUND 50 SOUTHERN ZONES. MUCH COLDER THAN LAST FEW DAYS AND 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLEAR...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS REST OF TUE-WED AS WELL. SFC HIGH
CENTER SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S MOST AREAS WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS PLUMMET TO NEAR FREEZING
NORTHERN AREAS TO UPPER 30S INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
IF WINDS REMAIN UP MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF COLD WIND CHILL VALUES
WED AM AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF
AND FL SLIDES NE ACROSS THE STATE TO THE ATLANTIC WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS AND AIDING IN THE WARMING TREND. A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD THU MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC FRI THROUGH
MON...RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND FL AS IT DOES. THIS
PROVIDES A NE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT VEERS TO MORE EASTERLY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PROBLEMS TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 23-03Z. LINE OF SHRA AHEAD OF FRONT FALLING APART
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. WILL DOWN PLAY PCPN WITH VCSH AT KTPA/KPIE
AND TEMPO SHRA AT KSRQ TO KRSW. ALL SITES WILL HAVE TEMPO MVFR CIG IN
TO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THEN E
OF THE STATE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW. SCEC CONDITIONS OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND 6 FT
SEAS ONGOING OVER NORTHERN WATERS ATTM. EXPECT CONSISTENT GRADIENT
TONIGHT TO HOLD CONDITIONS SIMILAR...BUT IF GRADIENT TIGHTENS ANY
FURTHER WILL NEED TO HOIST SCA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUOY
DATA. TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES TUE-MID-LATE WEEK FOR ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS AS WINDS VEER EASTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIRMASS FILTERING OVER THE PENINSULA FOR
TUE. EXPECT MIN RHS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INTERIOR AND LOWER
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR LONG DURATIONS...SO HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING ALL AREAS EXCEPT PINELLAS. WED CONTINUED DRY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE ISSUED WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS. E FLOW TO BEGIN THU WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  49  66  41  63 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  56  69  43  68 /  20   0   0   0
GIF  49  66  40  64 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  52  66  41  64 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  39  66  33  62 /   5   0   0   0
SPG  54  65  47  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
     20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...RD
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RKR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
525 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-081500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
525 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROCEEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE
REACHING OUR AREA.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 4 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE AND
4 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
STILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRC